8515 US Highway 41 N · Memphis, FL 34221

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Land public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turn-Key Luxury in Winterset Resort | Fully Remodeled & amp; Furnished Asking Price: $55,000 (Cash preferred; Land Contract terms available) Experience modern living in this meticulously renovated 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. Stripped to the shell and completely rebuilt, this residence offers the peace of mind of new construction with the charm of a premier resort community. Interior Highlights Complete Overhaul: New studs, insulation, drywall, plumbing, and 100-amp electrical service. Modern Finishes: Luxury vinyl tile (LVT) flooring throughout and a spacious walk-in shower. Chef & acirc; & euro; & trade; s Kitchen: Full-size stainless steel appliances (including dishwasher

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• New construction
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• LUXURY VINYL TILE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN SHOWER
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• LARGE PAVER PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.9% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.33%
• DSCR: 6.67
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $87,732
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.80×
• Total profit: $181,692
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $1,634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	23d	1	0.44mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$2,044	$1.85	23d	1	0.86mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,445	$2.48	3d	220	0.86mi
3315 97th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2560	$2,756	$1.08	3d	1	1.03mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	21d	1	1.18mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	21d	1	1.27mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	23d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $19,919
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,781
• After-tax cash flow: $14,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $55,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $166,935 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.