111 Cains Mill Rd · Folsom, NJ 08094

$255,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1940 0.87 ac lot Est $388k · 34% under · waterfront $78/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home on just under an acre, has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is great for paddle boarding, canoeing, and swimming. Spacious fenced in yard with 2 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer roof, kitchen appliances, central Ac, and flooring in the living room. With some tlc and personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house. Come experience true peace and serenity living!

Key facts

• 0.87 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 13 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property condition: Average; Located near Cains Mill Lake; cross street Mill Lane; municipality FOLSOM BORO
• HOA & community: HOA fee $934 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Stone driveway; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Natural gas for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Above-grade living area (estimated finished area)
• Construction: Frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Shed on property; Built year estimated
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Private water access to Cains Mill Lake; Exclusive easement to waterfront; Sandy beach; Waterfront (lake) orientation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas)
• Interior features: Gas/propane fireplace; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#392 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Folsom Borough School District (rural): math 13% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #374 of 472 in NJ (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Folsom Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 376 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $255k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.66%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $387,755
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Cains Mill Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,182 (0%)	1mo	$258,111	$218	99
211 Kings Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,108 (-6%)	2mo	$330,000	$298	71
313 W Collings Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+3%)	11mo	$365,000	$299	62
21 N River Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,228 (+4%)	20mo	$170,000	$138	61
316 W Collings Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,240 (+5%)	13mo	$249,850	$201	61
105 Delwyn Ln	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,310 (+11%)	4mo	$330,000	$252	59
121 Delwyn Ln	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-14%)	2mo	$277,000	$272	58
401 Cains Mill Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,310 (+11%)	17mo	$210,000	$160	48
525 Wildwood Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,321 (+12%)	1mo	$312,000	$236	46
116 Carol Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-15%)	11mo	$320,000	$317	42
515 Cains Mill Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,317 (+11%)	10mo	$320,000	$243	42
519 Cains Mill Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,340 (+13%)	12mo	$282,900	$211	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-19,788
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $10,761
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08094

• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$328 /mo · $3,939/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$78
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $481	-5% $409	+0% $337	+5% $264	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $118	-5% $227	+0% $337	+5% $446	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $401	base $337	+0.5pp $271	+1.0pp $203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $78 · $936/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Under Contract 555-char remark

   Show marketing remark (555 chars)

   Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home on just under an acre, has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is great for paddle boarding, canoeing, and swimming. Spacious fenced in yard with 2 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer roof, kitchen appliances, central Ac, and flooring in the living room. With some tlc and personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house. Come experience true peace and serenity living!

3. 2026-04-25
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-04-13
   listed $255,000 Active 555-char remark

   Show marketing remark (555 chars)

   Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home on just under an acre, has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is great for paddle boarding, canoeing, and swimming. Spacious fenced in yard with 2 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer roof, kitchen appliances, central Ac, and flooring in the living room. With some tlc and personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house. Come experience true peace and serenity living!

5. 2026-04-13
   listed $255,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (555 chars)

   Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home on just under an acre, has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is great for paddle boarding, canoeing, and swimming. Spacious fenced in yard with 2 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer roof, kitchen appliances, central Ac, and flooring in the living room. With some tlc and personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house. Come experience true peace and serenity living!

6. 2026-04-10
   historical $255,000
7. 2020-10-13
   soldstatus $165,000
8. 2020-10-06
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is anticipated to be back opened in the Fall of 2020! This large property on just under an acre, has waterway access by the Cains Mill Dam. Spacious fenced in yard with 3 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer Well (2017), Hot Water Heater (2017), Sheds (2017 and 2020), and Washer & Dryer (2017). With some personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house! Call to see this home today!

9. 2020-09-02
   status Pending 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is anticipated to be back opened in the Fall of 2020! This large property on just under an acre, has waterway access by the Cains Mill Dam. Spacious fenced in yard with 3 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer Well (2017), Hot Water Heater (2017), Sheds (2017 and 2020), and Washer & Dryer (2017). With some personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house! Call to see this home today!

10. 2020-08-29
    historical Active Under Contract 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is anticipated to be back opened in the Fall of 2020! This large property on just under an acre, has waterway access by the Cains Mill Dam. Spacious fenced in yard with 3 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer Well (2017), Hot Water Heater (2017), Sheds (2017 and 2020), and Washer & Dryer (2017). With some personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house! Call to see this home today!

11. 2020-08-02
    historical
12. 2020-08-01
    listed $169,000 Active 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    Welcome to the market 111 Cains Mill Road in Folsom Boro - Atlantic County! This home has direct waterfront access to the Cains Mill Lake, which is anticipated to be back opened in the Fall of 2020! This large property on just under an acre, has waterway access by the Cains Mill Dam. Spacious fenced in yard with 3 large sheds, perfect for storage. This home boasts some new features, including a newer Well (2017), Hot Water Heater (2017), Sheds (2017 and 2020), and Washer & Dryer (2017). With some personal finishing touches, you can make this home your very own beach-house! Call to see this home today!

13. 2020-05-01
    historical
14. 2019-10-04
    listed $176,600 Active
15. 2019-08-07
    listed $176,600 Active
16. 2019-04-02
    historical
17. 2018-11-29
    price $174,000
18. 2018-11-02
    listed $174,500 Active
19. 2018-04-24
    historical
20. 2018-03-19
    listed $184,900 Active
21. 2017-04-20
    historical
22. 2017-03-20
    listed $165,000 Active
23. 1978-07-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,939 · $328/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,144 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,205/yr (+$100/mo · 30.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,939
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,657
• − Management: −$2,657
• − HOA: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $44
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $4,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 3405280
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $65,829
• Composite: 23.88/100
• National rank: #7798
• State rank: #374 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Folsom

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #13471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Folsom, NJ
• County: Gloucester County · 160,422 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 41,595
• Household income: $96,699
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.12%
• Current HPI: 278.3849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1008.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $255,000 SJSRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-06 Sold (MLS) $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-29 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-01 Listed $169,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-01 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2019-10-04 Listed $176,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-07 Listed $176,600 SJSRMLS
• 2019-04-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-29 Price Changed $174,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-02 Listed $174,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-04-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-19 Listed $184,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-04-20 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2017-03-20 Listed $165,000 SJSRMLS
• 1978-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,939 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.