2961 Mariaville Rd · Rotterdam, NY 12306

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1942 2.27 ac lot ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller has received multiple offers and is setting a Highest & Best Deadline for Thursday February 12th @ 4pm ET. Please email [email protected] for additional information and terms Property is sold as-is condition, Seller has no knowledge or information. ''For the first 30-day period listing this property, the seller will only accept offers from Owner-Occupant Buyers, governmental entities, including their instrumentalities, and Nonprofit Organizations. '' Seller does not pay for closing costs which include but are not limited to buyer attorney's fees, title insurance premiums, transfer taxes, other title company misc charges property taxes, etc. Seller does not prorate

Key facts

• 2.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.7% vs local median 3.0% in Rotterdam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#161 in NY, #2,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Schalmont Central School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #243 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 154 units permitted in Schenectady County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Schenectady County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 94.21%
• DSCR: 5.19
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 95.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $61,804
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.30×
• Total profit: $143,890
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12306

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $1,097

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,131	-5% $1,114	+0% $1,097	+5% $1,080	+10% $1,062
Rent	-10% $953	-5% $1,025	+0% $1,097	+5% $1,169	+10% $1,241
Rate	-1.0pp $1,122	-0.5pp $1,110	base $1,097	+0.5pp $1,084	+1.0pp $1,071

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   listed $49,900 Active
3. 2012-06-27
   historical
4. 2012-06-21
   listed $99,900
5. 2012-02-09
   historical
6. 2011-08-08
   listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $13,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,156
• After-tax cash flow: $10,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schalmont Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625980
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,566
• Composite: 51.11/100
• National rank: #1765
• State rank: #243 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rotterdam

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #2455

Category grades

Amenities C Commute B Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Schenectady County · 141,369 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,865
• Household income: $83,202
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (Schenectady County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,046 people
• By 2030: 154,322 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 151,796 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 148,621 · -4.1%
• By 2075: 141,229 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 126,014 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schenectady

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 55.4% · R 44.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.7pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+15.7 2016: D+5.8 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.35%
• Current HPI: 292.1229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-50.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $49,900 Global MLS
• 2012-06-27 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2012-06-21 Listed $99,900 Global MLS
• 2012-02-09 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2011-08-08 Listed $99,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,602 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.