4125 Mchenry Ave #18 · Modesto, CA 95356

$117,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1973 Est $104k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home in a highly desirable gated 55+ community in the Modesto area! The living room is filled with natural light from expansive windows, creating a warm and welcoming space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry, stylish countertops, and stainless steel appliances, making everyday cooking easy and functional. Additional features include dual-pane windows, newer A/C for added comfort, and a convenient storage shed. Enjoy community amenities including a pool, clubhouse, and social events, all ideally located near shopping, dining, and the movie theaterdon't miss this one!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Ample cabinetry
• Dual-pane windows

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEWER A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 4125 McHenry Ave #18, Modesto, CA 95356; Use GPS for directions
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Electric: Other; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home located in a park; Double-wide; Built in 1973
• Construction: Metal roof; Manufactured home (Van Dyke make)
• Exterior features: Metal skirting; Other lot features; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Wall-mounted A/C units; Window A/C units
• Interior features: Dual-pane full windows; Porch with steps and railing; Covered patio/porch; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside the home (inside room/area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,490 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.39%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4125 Mchenry Ave #134	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+2%)	2mo	$115,000	$105	93
4125 Mchenry Ave #43	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	3mo	$65,000	$58	91
4125 Mchenry Ave	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	7mo	$135,000	$121	87
4125 Mchenry Ave #30	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,080 (0%)	15mo	$70,000	$65	87
4125 Mchenry Ave #55	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	7mo	$135,000	$121	86
4125 Mchenry Ave #92	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	9mo	$45,000	$40	84
4125 McHenry Ave #93	0.04mi	2/2.0	940 (-13%)	2mo	$56,000	$60	75
4125 Mchenry Ave #71	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	9mo	$84,000	$70	72
4024 Mchenry Ave #26	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	940 (-13%)	2mo	$90,000	$96	61
48 Clipper Ln	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+7%)	2mo	$129,000	$111	60
70 Clipper Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-2%)	16mo	$120,000	$114	58
165 Clipper Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	13mo	$105,000	$88	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,258
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $19,766
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $460	+0% $420	+5% $380	+10% $339
Rent	-10% $297	-5% $359	+0% $420	+5% $481	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $479	-0.5pp $450	base $420	+0.5pp $390	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Warren Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,825	$2.52	16d	4	0.49mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	16d	1	0.78mi
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	25d	1	0.82mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	16d	10	0.90mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	16d	10	1.01mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	16d	1	1.01mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	16d	2	1.09mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	25d	1	1.15mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	23d	1	1.20mi
2700 Macdougal St #12 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$1,625	$1.89	23d	1	1.24mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	16d	1	1.24mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	23d	1	1.37mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	16d	1	1.37mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	16d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $117,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $117,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   pricedays on market $117,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   price $119,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $3,379
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$811
• After-tax cash flow: $4,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B