1414 Onslow Pines Rd · Jacksonville, NC 28540

$157,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1979 0.53 ac lot Est $199k · 21% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch home with 1,025 sq ft of comfortable living space. Enjoy a spacious, level lot with paved road frontage in a quiet Jacksonville neighborhood. The single-story layout features a low-maintenance brick exterior and plenty of yard for outdoor enjoyment. Perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to add their personal touch. Convenient location with easy access to local amenities. Property sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Paved road frontage
• Level lot
• Outdoor enjoyment

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• PAVED ROAD FRONTAGE
• LOW MAINTENANCE BRICK EXTERIOR
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 car)
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: County water; Septic system installed; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Site-built construction; One story; R-15 zoning
• Construction: Brick exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Publicly maintained paved concrete road access; Lot approximately 0.53 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified; No cooling system specified
• Interior features: Room count: 1; No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hook-ups or washer/dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,580 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.71%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,850
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1426 Onslow Pines Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	2mo	$198,900	$194	96
1438 Onslow Pines Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	11mo	$222,000	$217	86
209 Vandergrift Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,059 (+3%)	22mo	$205,000	$194	59
205 Vandergrift Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+8%)	19mo	$230,000	$207	51
106 Vandergrift Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+14%)	24mo	$170,000	$146	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,223
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $28,036
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28540

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 380
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,531 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $459/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,173

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Vandergrift Dr Jacksonville, NC	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,600	$1.10	13d	1	0.60mi
112 Briarcreek Ln Unit 113 Jacksonville, NC	2.0	2.0	925	$1,000	$1.08	21d	1	0.90mi
184 Justice Rd Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,900	$1.50	21d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $157,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $157,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $157,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $157,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   price $157,000
6. 2026-04-28
   price $159,000
7. 2026-03-26
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,287 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$828/yr (+$69/mo · 180.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,373
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$459
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,470
• − Management: −$1,470
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$198
• After-tax cash flow: $3,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #6991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• City population: 96,397
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 49,141
• Household income: $65,625
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1304.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.11%
• Current HPI: 219.5571
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.47%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $157,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $159,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $175,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $459 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.