629 W Fordyce Ave · Kingsville, TX 78363

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1956 0.32 ac lot $40/sqft · 62% below area ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity! House sits on 4 lots.

Key facts

• Sits on 4 lots
• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• SITS ON 4 LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 5.4% in Kingsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Kingsville ISD (town): math 13% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #800 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.51%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,949
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -62.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
629 W Fordyce Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,218 (0%)	0mo	$49,000	$40	100
332 William St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-4%)	2mo	$135,000	$116	78
616 S Wanda Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,267 (+4%)	6mo	$139,900	$110	76
219 E Warren Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+1%)	4mo	$220,000	$179	66
710 W King Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-8%)	6mo	$105,000	$94	58
503 N 2nd St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-2%)	9mo	$42,500	$36	57
502 S Wanda	0.19mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,131 (-7%)	23mo	$149,500	$132	51
907 W Alice	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-5%)	12mo	$145,000	$125	45
609 S Lantana Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+13%)	22mo	$38,000	$28	44
924 W Lee Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,190 (-2%)	23mo	$140,000	$118	36
932 W Alice	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,256 (+3%)	24mo	$150,500	$120	36
302 E Hoffman Ave S	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,115 (-8%)	20mo	$105,000	$94	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $34,259
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $101,407
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78363

• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $494

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
908 E Doddridge Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	43d	1	1.16mi
503 W Mesquite Ave Kingsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	13d	1	1.27mi
704 W Corral Ave Unit 402 Kingsville, TX	2.0	1.0	935	$895	$0.96	43d	1	1.36mi
704 W Corral Ave Unit 503 Kingsville, TX	2.0	1.0	935	$995	$1.06	43d	1	1.36mi
2420 S 6th St Kingsville, TX	2.0	1.0	715	$859	$1.20	21d	1	1.37mi
2420 S 6th St Kingsville, TX	2.0	1.0	715	$859	$1.20	13d	1	1.37mi
704 W Corral Ave Kingsville, TX	2.0	1.0	935	$865	$0.93	43d	1	1.38mi
704 W Corral Ave Kingsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	814	$995	$1.22	2d	7	1.38mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 45-char remark

   Show marketing remark (45 chars)

   Investment opportunity! House sits on 4 lots.

2. 2025-12-21
   listed $49,000 Active 45-char remark

   Show marketing remark (45 chars)

   Investment opportunity! House sits on 4 lots.

3. 2025-09-18
   price $45,000
4. 2025-09-04
   price $59,000
5. 2025-05-29
   price $65,000
6. 2025-05-09
   price $71,500
7. 2025-03-08
   listed $72,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,350 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $6,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $5,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825680
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,308
• Composite: 14.5/100
• National rank: #9425
• State rank: #800 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kingsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #364
• US rank: #7787

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsville, TX
• County: Kleberg County · 28,920 people
• City population: 28,920
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,920
• Household income: $60,574
• Rent vs Own: 49.3% rent · 50.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Kleberg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,615 people
• By 2030: 32,054 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 33,008 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 34,536 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 40,931 · +29.5%
• By 2100: 46,001 · +45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 36% White 20% Black 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kleberg

• 2024 margin: R (+12.7) · D 43.3% · R 56.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 7.2pp · 2024: -12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.7 2020: R+1.7 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+7.8 2008: D+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.12%
• Current HPI: 147.6473
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Kingsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CBMLS
• 2025-12-21 Listed $49,000 CBMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $45,000 CBMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $59,000 CBMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $65,000 CBMLS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $71,500 CBMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed $72,500 CBMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,350 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.