406 S A St · Monmouth, IL 61462

$89,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,025 sqft · SingleFamily · 184 Days on market

Built 1930 $44/sqft · at area comps Est $93k · at est. ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built in 1930 3-4 bedroom! Hardwood throughout Home! Enclosed 8' x 27' front Porch! Some replacement windows!

Key facts

• Hardwood throughout
• Enclosed front porch
• Replacement windows

Tags

• HARDWOOD THROUGHOUT
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, schools D-.
• Monmouth-Roseville CUSD 238 (town): math 10% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #511 of 620 in IL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.41%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,837
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: -4.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 W 3rd Ave	0.10mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,005 (-1%)	20mo	$72,500	$36	72
317 N C St	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,050 (+1%)	11mo	$135,000	$66	65
412 W Broadway Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,816 (-10%)	1mo	$179,000	$99	64
207 S 3rd St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,136 (+6%)	13mo	$112,500	$53	57
321 W Archer Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,076 (+2%)	23mo	$105,000	$51	54
310 S 5th St	0.39mi	3/2.0	2,196 (+8%)	19mo	$18,500	$8	50
903 E 2nd Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-15%)	2mo	$167,500	$97	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,042
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $23,109
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61462

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,908/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $283	+0% $258	+5% $233	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $212	+0% $258	+5% $304	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $280	base $258	+0.5pp $235	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $89,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 170 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 164 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 163 DOM
18. 2026-05-03
    price $95,000 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    Built in 1930 3-4 bedroom! Hardwood throughout Home! Enclosed 8' x 27' front Porch! Some replacement windows!

19. 2025-12-18
    listed $125,000 Active 109-char remark

    Show marketing remark (109 chars)

    Built in 1930 3-4 bedroom! Hardwood throughout Home! Enclosed 8' x 27' front Porch! Some replacement windows!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,964 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,908
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $1,819
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$436
• After-tax cash flow: $2,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monmouth-Roseville CUSD 238
• NCES district ID: 1700320
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,228
• Composite: 13.21/100
• National rank: #9552
• State rank: #511 of 620 in IL

Livability — Monmouth

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7739

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Monmouth, IL
• City population: 10,640
• Population (ZIP): 10,640

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,168 people
• By 2030: 16,771 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 15,988 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 15,471 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 15,053 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 14,513 · -15.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Philippines, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.5% · R 61.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.1pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+16.7 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.51%
• Current HPI: 139.0562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $95,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Listed $125,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,908 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.