9892 Fm 149 Rd · Montgomery, TX 77316

$247,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,524 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1995 0.52 ac lot $162/sqft · at area comps Est $257k · at est. $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pictures show the house virtually staged! Charming single-family ranch home in Montgomery featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with flexibility for a home-based business. Recently replaced HVAC system provides efficient central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Situated on an oversized 0.52-acre double lot, the home includes an attached garage, full perimeter fencing with a new gate, and ample space for future expansion, outdoor entertaining, or a pool. Refrigerator conveys. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this inviting home on a generously sized lot in Montgomery. Contractor quoted to paint the exterior 2 colors with materials $3000

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Oversized double lot
• Replaced hvac system

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY RANCH HOME
• REPLACED HVAC SYSTEM
• OVERSIZED DOUBLE LOT
• FULL PERIMETER FENCING
• NEW GATE
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,115 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,514
• List price: $247,000
• Delta: -3.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9495 Thousand Oaks Loop	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,512 (-1%)	9mo	$230,000	$152	83
10001 Youpon Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	9mo	$309,000	$206	76
10048 Crescent Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+7%)	9mo	$294,500	$180	61
20606 Keenan Cut Off Rd	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (+7%)	12mo	$290,000	$178	61
9976 Pine Point Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-5%)	11mo	$289,000	$200	58
10273 Crescent Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+5%)	10mo	$280,000	$175	56
9839 Pine Point Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-12%)	14mo	$239,900	$178	45
10169 Dogwood Loop	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-13%)	9mo	$215,000	$162	34
627 Nicholson Rd	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,300 (-15%)	23mo	$1,200,000	$923	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,810
• Equity at exit: $36,829

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-75,892
• Equity at exit: $21,356

Cash invested: $69,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,295
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,673/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,193

Max offer price $225,846

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,750
• Closing costs: $7,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $247,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $247,000 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    status Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    Pictures show the house virtually staged! Charming single-family ranch home in Montgomery featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with flexibility for a home-based business. Recently replaced HVAC system provides efficient central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Situated on an oversized 0.52-acre double lot, the home includes an attached garage, full perimeter fencing with a new gate, and ample space for future expansion, outdoor entertaining, or a pool. Refrigerator conveys. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this inviting home on a generously sized lot in Montgomery. Contractor quoted to paint the exterior 2 colors with materials $3000

16. 2026-03-12
    status Pending 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    Pictures show the house virtually staged! Charming single-family ranch home in Montgomery featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with flexibility for a home-based business. Recently replaced HVAC system provides efficient central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Situated on an oversized 0.52-acre double lot, the home includes an attached garage, full perimeter fencing with a new gate, and ample space for future expansion, outdoor entertaining, or a pool. Refrigerator conveys. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this inviting home on a generously sized lot in Montgomery. Contractor quoted to paint the exterior 2 colors with materials $3000

17. 2026-02-24
    price $247,000 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    Pictures show the house virtually staged! Charming single-family ranch home in Montgomery featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with flexibility for a home-based business. Recently replaced HVAC system provides efficient central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Situated on an oversized 0.52-acre double lot, the home includes an attached garage, full perimeter fencing with a new gate, and ample space for future expansion, outdoor entertaining, or a pool. Refrigerator conveys. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this inviting home on a generously sized lot in Montgomery. Contractor quoted to paint the exterior 2 colors with materials $3000

18. 2026-02-04
    listed $269,500 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    Pictures show the house virtually staged! Charming single-family ranch home in Montgomery featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. This well-maintained property offers comfortable living with flexibility for a home-based business. Recently replaced HVAC system provides efficient central heating and cooling for year-round comfort. Situated on an oversized 0.52-acre double lot, the home includes an attached garage, full perimeter fencing with a new gate, and ample space for future expansion, outdoor entertaining, or a pool. Refrigerator conveys. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this inviting home on a generously sized lot in Montgomery. Contractor quoted to paint the exterior 2 colors with materials $3000

19. 2025-10-28
    historical
20. 2025-08-25
    price $269,999
21. 2025-07-01
    price $273,500
22. 2025-06-19
    price $278,900
23. 2025-05-16
    price $282,900
24. 2025-04-05
    listed $285,000 Active
25. 2025-03-27
    historical
26. 2018-05-07
    soldstatus
27. 2018-05-04
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2018-04-11
    status Pending
29. 2018-03-27
    status Option Pending
30. 2018-02-08
    listed $168,000 Active
31. 2012-09-07
    historical
32. 2012-07-10
    listed $119,900
33. 2012-07-10
    historical
34. 2011-11-16
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,673 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,520 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: +$848/yr (+$71/mo · 23.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,836
• − Property taxes: −$3,673
• − Insurance: −$1,235
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$7,185
• Taxable loss: −$5,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,366
• After-tax cash flow: $-71/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+106.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $247,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $269,500 HARMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $273,500 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $278,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $282,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2018-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-05-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-02-08 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2012-09-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-07-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-07-10 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2011-11-16 Listed $119,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,673 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.