23 Hillcrest Ln · Mount Jewett, PA 15870

$19,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 1965 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Camp will need work. 100x100 Lot.

Key facts

• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $19k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($774 rent vs $19k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,366 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, health & safety D.
• Smethport Area SD (rural): math 34% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #270 of 539 in PA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in McKean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($131 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McKean County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $19,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 108.30%
• DSCR: 5.82
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.70×
• Total profit: $40,939
• Equity at exit: $17,117

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.15×
• Total profit: $96,535
• Equity at exit: $36,913

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15870

• Home prices YoY: 12.1%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$24 /mo · $285/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $166

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $493	-5% $487	+0% $480	+5% $474	+10% $467
Rent	-10% $419	-5% $450	+0% $480	+5% $511	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $490	-0.5pp $485	base $480	+0.5pp $475	+1.0pp $470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $19,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$285
• − Insurance: −$95
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$743
• − Management: −$743
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $5,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $4,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs, including a new roof and repainting, to become move-in ready and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of potential roof damage
• Major exterior siding — Siding appears faded and in need of repainting

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value
• Both repair roof — A new roof would significantly increase the home's value and safety
• Both repair exterior siding — Fresh siding would enhance the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of potential roof damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Siding appears faded and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Fresh paint would improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both repair roof — A new roof would significantly increase the home's value and safety ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — Fresh siding would enhance the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smethport Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,944
• Composite: 38.48/100
• National rank: #4186
• State rank: #270 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mount Jewett

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1366
• US rank: #17074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,239

Population outlook (McKean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,518 people
• By 2030: 39,290 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 36,438 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 33,556 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 27,682 · -31.7%
• By 2100: 21,726 · -46.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% American 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McKean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.2) · D 26.0% · R 73.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.3pp · 2024: -47.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.2 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+28.2 2008: R+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.11%
• Current HPI: 158.4897
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $19,000 FSBO.com