4971 Eleven Oaks Ln #15 · North Highlands, CA 95660

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 182 Days on market

Built 2017 $105/sqft · 28% above area Est $90k · 28% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the friendly Eleven Oaks Mobile Home & RV Park! This manufactured home offers great potential for a handy buyer or family looking to add their personal touch. Featuring a spacious layout with decks on the front and back and located in a friendly, well-maintained community, this is a fantastic chance to own at an affordable price. Whether you're an investor or someone looking to create your own space, this is a value-packed option you won't want to miss!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2017
• Listed 181 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.08%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,900
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 27.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5040 Jackson St #101	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,070 (-3%)	14mo	$75,000	$70	58
4814 Independence Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-2%)	4mo	$65,000	$60	56
5026 Valley Forge Ln #19	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,100 (0%)	19mo	$100,000	$91	52
5040 Jackson St #126	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	18mo	$78,000	$74	51
5040 Jackson St #23	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+10%)	12mo	$119,500	$99	49
5040 W Jackson. St #91	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-13%)	2mo	$32,500	$34	46
4125 Potomac Ln #129	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	8mo	$58,000	$48	46
4130 Annapolis Ln #159	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,225 (+11%)	9mo	$107,500	$88	41
4125 Vicksburg Ln #187	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,045 (-5%)	13mo	$60,000	$57	39
5040 Jackson St #79	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+14%)	17mo	$75,500	$60	37
5040 Jackson St #149	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+14%)	12mo	$88,000	$71	35
4137 West Pt	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+14%)	19mo	$90,000	$72	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $14,889
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $73,945
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95660

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,469

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3609 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	1d	2	0.17mi
4930 Polk St North Highlands, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,795	$1.91	1d	3	0.21mi
3517 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	3d	1	0.21mi
3731 Scallop Ct North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$2,150	$2.33	43d	1	0.24mi
5061 Shell St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,000	$2.67	1d	1	0.26mi
3800 Madison Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	524	$1,500	$2.86	1d	7	0.33mi
5123 Shell St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	1d	1	0.37mi
4008 Tricia Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	12d	1	0.49mi
4020 Tricia Way Unit 4688001002 North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.52mi
3652 McClellan Dr North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	1d	1	0.65mi
5416 Jackson St North Highlands, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	720	$1,750	$2.43	1d	30	0.70mi
5520 Harrison St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$1,478	$2.01	7d	1	0.89mi
5625 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	875	$2,150	$2.46	1d	1	0.92mi
5516 Palmdale Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1115	$2,250	$2.02	20d	1	1.04mi
5728 Luce Ave McClellan Park, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	1058	$2,190	$2.07	1d	3	1.05mi
5733 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	925	$2,195	$2.37	2d	1	1.10mi
4215 Palm Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,660	$2.14	1d	3	1.18mi
4605 Cyclamen Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,695	$1.95	1d	1	1.26mi
4552 Ashcroft Ave Unit 36D Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	1d	1	1.28mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Unit 52 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	1d	1	1.29mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Apt 49 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,499	$1.69	1d	1	1.29mi
5001 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,400	$2.17	1d	1	1.33mi
4909 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,750	$2.37	43d	1	1.33mi
3544 Auburn Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	19d	1	1.34mi
3610 Auburn Blvd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1140	$2,395	$2.10	7d	1	1.34mi
4255 Winding Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,995	$1.53	7d	1	1.34mi
5800 Hamilton St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,770	$2.15	1d	4	1.35mi
6037 N Haven Dr North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	884	$2,150	$2.43	1d	1	1.36mi
3902 Annadale Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	692	$1,618	$2.34	3d	17	1.37mi
5048 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,588	$1.59	43d	1	1.38mi
5614 Hillsdale Blvd Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,450	$1.55	21d	1	1.40mi
4661 Orange Grove Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,495	$2.14	23d	2	1.41mi
4728 Amber Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,900	$2.60	19d	1	1.42mi
5011 Bremner Way #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	1d	1	1.42mi
5011 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	23d	1	1.42mi
4716 Tulane Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,450	$1.88	23d	1	1.44mi
5008 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	1d	1	1.46mi
3831 Annadale Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	786	$1,700	$2.16	3d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 164 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$5,694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $3,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$929
• After-tax cash flow: $4,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — North Highlands

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #17613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Highlands, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 56,900
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,451
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.83%
• Current HPI: 438.1022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.69%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $996 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.