513 Welch Dr · Royse City, TX 75189

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2006 8,451 sqft lot $145/sqft · 24% below area Est $343k · 24% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic 4 bedroom 2 bathroom home in the fast growing area of Royse City - just 30 miles east of Dallas, and 8 miles from bustling Rockwall. Recent upgrades include a new water heater from 2022, New fence in 2022, and New Roof and gutters with transferable warranty in 2022. Featuring high ceilings and lots of open space, this home has tons of potential and charm to gather and host. Enormous 3 car garage and expansive rear-entry driveway boasts plenty of space for storage and parking.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Ample cabinetry
• 3 car garage

Tags

• 3 CAR GARAGE
• MODERN OAK TONED LVP FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• BRIGHT BREAKFAST AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include curbs and sidewalks
• Financial info: Listing available for cash, conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee (includes management fees); HOA managed by Village Association Management, LLC

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage (garage faces rear) with garage door opener; Covered parking for 3 cars; Driveway access; Alley access; 2-car single door, side-by-side configuration
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Individual gas meter; Individual water meter; Curbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Built in 2006; Not attached to other properties; Deed restrictions present
• Construction: Brick and wood construction; Slab foundation; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Gutters; Wood fencing; Sprinkler system; Grassed yard; Interior, level lot; Subdivision location; Easement for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with kitchen island and pantry; Natural stone/granite counters; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Vented exhaust fan; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms include walk-in closet in one bedroom
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with dual sinks, garden tub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anita Scott El (math 53% / reading 40%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 47% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,154 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,605
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -24.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 Welch Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-1%)	2mo	$285,000	$160	90
508 Ame Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (-4%)	2mo	$190,000	$110	85
329 Ame Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-5%)	4mo	$269,000	$158	81
3008 Rembrandt Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,801 (+0%)	2mo	$323,415	$180	80
204 Victoria Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,779 (-1%)	0mo	$285,000	$160	75
5032 Picasso Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,831 (+2%)	3mo	$339,990	$186	71
1508 Brandon Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+1%)	2mo	$250,000	$138	70
821 Rowdy Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,645 (-8%)	4mo	$239,900	$146	67
3013 Rembrandt Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,007 (+12%)	2mo	$309,999	$154	56
3060 Rembrandt Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,057 (+15%)	2mo	$339,990	$165	47
5512 Spieth Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,036 (+14%)	2mo	$365,990	$180	41
133 Lisa Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,037 (+14%)	4mo	$325,000	$160	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-63,942
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-100,133
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1301
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,226 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$521 /mo · $6,253/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,533

Max offer price $217,154

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-169	+0% $-243	+5% $-316	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-330	+0% $-243	+5% $-155	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-176	base $-243	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1204 Blue Ridge Pl Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,400	$1.37	4d	1	0.07mi
1212 Blue Ridge Pl Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,450	$1.09	20d	1	0.08mi
512 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	26d	1	0.12mi
1334 Great Sand Dune St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2303	$2,500	$1.09	0d	1	0.18mi
320 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	2213	$2,045	$0.92	0d	1	0.21mi
2404 Rocky Mountain Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2256	$2,264	$1.00	22d	1	0.23mi
225 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1651	$1,825	$1.11	26d	1	0.28mi
225 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1651	$1,825	$1.11	15d	1	0.28mi
3427 Flatiron Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,250	$0.94	12d	1	0.29mi
7307 Village Falls Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,110	$1.22	0d	1	0.29mi
4432 Cascade Falls Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2397	$2,265	$0.94	22d	1	0.30mi
6127 Tawakoni Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$2,200	$1.27	45d	1	0.31mi
804 Rowdy Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$1,700	$1.02	5d	1	0.31mi
708 Mackenzie Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$1,780	$1.00	45d	1	0.34mi
713 Cooper Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1859	$1,895	$1.02	1d	1	0.36mi
609 Rosemary Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,835	$1.04	7d	1	0.40mi
609 Rosemary Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,901	$1.08	14d	1	0.40mi
1501 Kelly Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,875	$1.34	0d	1	0.49mi
524 Timberhaven Trl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1693	$1,900	$1.12	26d	1	0.52mi
220 Fire Rock Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.54mi
173 Lisa Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	2417	$2,400	$0.99	45d	1	0.56mi
525 Janette Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,095	$1.02	15d	1	0.71mi
317 Fire Rock Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,995	$1.23	1d	1	0.72mi
3762 S FM 548 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,899	$1.21	7d	1	0.80mi
1023 Lakes Dr Royse City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1194	$1,749	$1.46	3d	1	0.92mi
2044 Hearn Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,200	$1.07	5d	1	1.08mi
1332 Pierce St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2118	$2,350	$1.11	45d	1	1.22mi
1947 Hellams Ln Unit 1 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,250	$1.22	7d	1	1.43mi
1012 Brookhaven Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,149	$1.31	5d	1	1.43mi
1939 Hellams Ln Unit 1 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1711	$1,995	$1.17	20d	1	1.43mi
1931 Hellams Ln Unit 1 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1711	$1,995	$1.17	20d	1	1.44mi
221 Rustic Grove Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,895	$1.54	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $260,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $260,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $275,000 Active 1104-char remark
17. 2025-10-03
    historical
18. 2025-07-14
    price $290,000
19. 2025-05-06
    price $300,000
20. 2025-04-03
    listed $320,000 Active
21. 2023-11-14
    soldstatus
22. 2023-11-10
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Fantastic 4 bedroom 2 bathroom home in the fast growing area of Royse City - just 30 miles east of Dallas, and 8 miles from bustling Rockwall. Recent upgrades include a new water heater from 2022, New fence in 2022, and New Roof and gutters with transferable warranty in 2022. Featuring high ceilings and lots of open space, this home has tons of potential and charm to gather and host. Enormous 3 car garage and expansive rear-entry driveway boasts plenty of space for storage and parking.

23. 2023-10-27
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Fantastic 4 bedroom 2 bathroom home in the fast growing area of Royse City - just 30 miles east of Dallas, and 8 miles from bustling Rockwall. Recent upgrades include a new water heater from 2022, New fence in 2022, and New Roof and gutters with transferable warranty in 2022. Featuring high ceilings and lots of open space, this home has tons of potential and charm to gather and host. Enormous 3 car garage and expansive rear-entry driveway boasts plenty of space for storage and parking.

24. 2023-10-18
    historical Active Option Contract

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Fantastic 4 bedroom 2 bathroom home in the fast growing area of Royse City - just 30 miles east of Dallas, and 8 miles from bustling Rockwall. Recent upgrades include a new water heater from 2022, New fence in 2022, and New Roof and gutters with transferable warranty in 2022. Featuring high ceilings and lots of open space, this home has tons of potential and charm to gather and host. Enormous 3 car garage and expansive rear-entry driveway boasts plenty of space for storage and parking.

25. 2023-07-20
    listed $315,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Fantastic 4 bedroom 2 bathroom home in the fast growing area of Royse City - just 30 miles east of Dallas, and 8 miles from bustling Rockwall. Recent upgrades include a new water heater from 2022, New fence in 2022, and New Roof and gutters with transferable warranty in 2022. Featuring high ceilings and lots of open space, this home has tons of potential and charm to gather and host. Enormous 3 car garage and expansive rear-entry driveway boasts plenty of space for storage and parking.

26. 2018-08-03
    soldstatus
27. 2018-04-13
    soldstatus
28. 2006-09-29
    soldstatus
29. 2006-08-27
    historical
30. 2006-07-06
    listed $154,005

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,253 · $521/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,253 · $521/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$6,253
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,137
• − Management: −$2,137
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Royse City, TX
• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+68.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $290,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $320,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-10-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-10-18 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-07-20 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
• 2018-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-29 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-08-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2006-07-06 Listed $154,005 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,253 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.