Plan 1772 Modeled Plan · San Antonio, TX 78221

$219,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily · 304 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Rent growth +0.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Front porch
• Powder bath

Tags

• POWDER BATH
• CORNER KITCHEN PANTRY
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $219,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $252,077.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Harlandale ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #748 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: H W Schulze El (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 594 students, 86% FRL); Kingsborough Middle (math 17% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 567 students, 88% FRL); Mccollum H S (math 31% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,494 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,287 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.61%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,077
• List price: $219,995
• Delta: -12.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9422 Birch Bark Bnd	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+0%)	2mo	$242,255	$136	89
827 Middlebury Farms	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+3%)	1mo	$259,990	$142	88
831 Middlebury Farms	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,826 (+3%)	2mo	$276,990	$152	87
822 Bifurcate Bnd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+8%)	1mo	$252,068	$132	79
419 Pleasanton	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,691 (-5%)	3mo	$239,990	$142	67
9903 Chavaneaux Lndg	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,802 (+2%)	2mo	$299,990	$166	64
14427 Brooke Path	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,802 (+2%)	0mo	$242,999	$135	63
9915 Chavaneaux Lndg	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,802 (+2%)	1mo	$299,990	$166	63
9618 Pleasanton Ash	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,946 (+10%)	3mo	$204,000	$105	59
14435 Brooke Path	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,657 (-6%)	2mo	$232,999	$141	54
9910 Chavaneaux Lndg	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (-11%)	2mo	$278,100	$175	46
9823 De Allende Path	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (-11%)	3mo	$219,500	$140	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,114
• Equity at exit: $99,814

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,231
• Equity at exit: $144,032

Cash invested: $70,582 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78221

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$315 /mo · $3,781/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,205

Max offer price $195,805

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-215	-5% $-302	+0% $-389	+5% $-476	+10% $-563
Rent	-10% $-524	-5% $-457	+0% $-389	+5% $-321	+10% $-254
Rate	-1.0pp $-262	-0.5pp $-325	base $-389	+0.5pp $-454	+1.0pp $-521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,019
• Closing costs: $7,562
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9419 Platte Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,799	$1.01	12d	1	0.23mi
9406 Hinterlands Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,899	$1.13	19d	1	0.25mi
619 Pleasanton Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,495	$1.12	25d	1	0.37mi
9879 Chavaneaux Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,700	$1.07	25d	1	0.53mi
9606 Pleasanton Sq San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1903	$1,700	$0.89	13d	1	0.58mi
8930 Scarlett Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1956	$1,700	$0.87	45d	1	0.62mi
8919 Scarlett Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,645	$0.93	25d	1	0.63mi
8818 Scarlett Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,630	$0.99	25d	1	0.70mi
614 Barberry St Unit 201 San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1718	$1,550	$0.90	45d	1	0.72mi
15949 S Flores St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,475	$1.20	45d	1	0.78mi
15966 S Flores St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,585	$1.28	45d	1	0.80mi
1011 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,700	$1.16	25d	1	0.87mi
1015 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	6d	1	0.87mi
8816 Oakbrook St San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1326	$1,595	$1.20	25d	1	0.93mi
1622 Saenz San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,475	$1.14	23d	1	1.18mi
407 Creath Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1632	$2,200	$1.35	45d	1	1.20mi
407 Creath Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1632	$2,300	$1.41	25d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,995 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,995 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,995 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,995 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,995 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,995 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,995 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,995 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,995 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $219,995 Active 290 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,995 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,995 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,995 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,995 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,995 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $229,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

17. 2026-03-07
    price $228,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

18. 2026-02-27
    price $233,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

19. 2026-01-28
    price $226,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

20. 2026-01-19
    price $231,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

21. 2025-12-05
    price $226,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

22. 2025-10-14
    price $224,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

23. 2025-09-29
    price $221,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

24. 2025-09-03
    price $219,995 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

25. 2025-08-21
    listed $216,995 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near top-rated schools * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,120
• − Property taxes: −$3,781
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$7,333
• Taxable loss: −$9,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlandale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822470
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,850
• Composite: 19.25/100
• National rank: #8806
• State rank: #748 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,178
• Household income: $63,811
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1180.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 28% White 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 251.1635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+6.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $228,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $233,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $226,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $231,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $226,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $224,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $221,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $219,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-21 Listed $216,995 Zillow