77 Magnolia Acres Rd · Natchez, MS 39120

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1970 2.50 ac lot ↓ 42% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Plenty of space to garden or work in the yard on this beautiful 2.87 acres near Kingston. 1972 model Mobile home with metal roof is on the property. Needs septic system and some work to the trailer.

Key facts

• 2.6 acres
• 2.5 acre lot
• 10 parking spots

Tags

• 2.6 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 26.9% vs local median 4.4% in Natchez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#156 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.71%
• DSCR: 4.28
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $37,279
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.96×
• Total profit: $88,898
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $992/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $391

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $39,900 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-03-31
    price $39,999 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    Plenty of space to garden or work in the yard on this beautiful 2.87 acres near Kingston. 1972 model Mobile home with metal roof is on the property. Needs septic system and some work to the trailer.

11. 2026-03-30
    status Active 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    Plenty of space to garden or work in the yard on this beautiful 2.87 acres near Kingston. 1972 model Mobile home with metal roof is on the property. Needs septic system and some work to the trailer.

12. 2026-03-02
    status Pending 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    Plenty of space to garden or work in the yard on this beautiful 2.87 acres near Kingston. 1972 model Mobile home with metal roof is on the property. Needs septic system and some work to the trailer.

13. 2025-10-21
    price $49,999 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    Plenty of space to garden or work in the yard on this beautiful 2.87 acres near Kingston. 1972 model Mobile home with metal roof is on the property. Needs septic system and some work to the trailer.

14. 2025-09-21
    listed $69,000 Active 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    Plenty of space to garden or work in the yard on this beautiful 2.87 acres near Kingston. 1972 model Mobile home with metal roof is on the property. Needs septic system and some work to the trailer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $992 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$992
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,945
• After-tax cash flow: $6,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Natchez

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #15334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-42.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $39,999 MLSU
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-03-02 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $49,999 MLSU
• 2025-09-21 Listed $69,000 MLSU