15725 Plum Brook Dr · Conroe, TX 77303

$207,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $36/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $207,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $275,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-581 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1010 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,408 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.03%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,990
• List price: $207,990
• Delta: -24.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15709 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	4mo	$267,990	$182	96
15716 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	4mo	$269,990	$183	96
15700 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	4mo	$269,991	$183	95
15543 Caramel Springs Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	3mo	$279,900	$180	86
15636 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	5mo	$279,900	$180	86
15450 Maple Terrace Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	2mo	$272,900	$176	86
16306 Sweet Grove Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+5%)	1mo	$220,000	$142	84
15717 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	3mo	$275,990	$166	71
15728 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$222,990	$134	70
15708 Plum Brook Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	2mo	$214,340	$129	70
15701 Plum Brook Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	4mo	$275,990	$166	70
16310 Weaver Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-5%)	1mo	$285,000	$203	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-86,749
• Equity at exit: $41,151

10-year hold

• IRR: -72.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-142,542
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.7 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $264,400 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 50 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1010
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,140/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,460

Max offer price $191,878

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-391	-5% $-486	+0% $-581	+5% $-677	+10% $-772
Rent	-10% $-717	-5% $-649	+0% $-581	+5% $-513	+10% $-445
Rate	-1.0pp $-442	-0.5pp $-511	base $-581	+0.5pp $-653	+1.0pp $-726

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,998
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15648 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	0.02mi
15642 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,535	$1.18	24d	1	0.02mi
15667 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,725	$0.96	20d	1	0.02mi
15647 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,615	$1.04	20d	1	0.02mi
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,550	$1.19	73d	1	0.02mi
15643 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,580	$1.21	20d	1	0.02mi
15651 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	0.02mi
15623 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1807	$1,770	$0.98	0d	1	0.03mi
15554 Caramel Springs Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,535	$1.18	10d	1	0.04mi
15550 Caramel Springs Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1793	$1,650	$0.92	4d	1	0.04mi
15578 Caramel Springs Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,695	$1.09	45d	1	0.04mi
15574 Caramel Springs Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,535	$1.18	45d	1	0.04mi
15571 Caramel Springs Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,615	$1.04	20d	1	0.06mi
16480 Blossom Grove Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,695	$1.35	0d	1	0.17mi
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$1,705	$1.04	0d	1	0.22mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by SBB ManagementAnnual association fee of $432

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)One-story entry (first floor living)
• Construction: Built in 2026Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 14)Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $207,990 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $207,990 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $207,990 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $207,990 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $207,990 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $207,990 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $207,990 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $207,990 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $207,990 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    pricedays on market $207,990 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $212,990 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $212,990 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $212,990 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $212,990 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $212,990 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $212,990 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $212,990 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $202,991 Active 87 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $202,991 Active 86 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $202,991 Active 85 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $202,991 Active 84 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $202,991 Active 83 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $202,991 Active 82 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $202,991 Active 81 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $202,991 Active 80 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $202,991 Active 79 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $202,991 Active 78 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $202,991 Active 77 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    price $202,991 Active 76 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $192,991 Active 76 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $192,991 Active 75 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $192,991 Active 74 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $192,991 Active 73 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $192,991 Active 72 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $192,991 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $192,991 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $192,991 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    price $192,991 Active 68 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $202,991 Active 68 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $202,991 Active 67 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $202,991 Active 66 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $202,991 Active 64 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $202,991 Active 63 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $202,991 Active 62 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $202,991 Active 61 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $202,991 Active 58 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $202,991 Active 56 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $202,991 Active 55 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $202,991 Active 53 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $202,991 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$4,140
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable loss: −$12,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,895
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern amenities. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Austin El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Moorhead J H F TX #704/1,662 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Caney Creek H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by SBB ManagementAnnual association fee of $432

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)One-story entry (first floor living)
• Construction: Built in 2026Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 14)Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $212,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $212,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $211,040 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Listed $212,190 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $212,190 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $212,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listed $223,990 Zillow