13905 Trinity Mountain Rd #3 · French Gulch, CA 96033

$69,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2006 Est $136k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to solitude and serenity at Clear Creek Estates. Nestled alongside the rushing waters of Clear Creek and surrounded by mountainous views, this mobile home community is as full of nature as it is friendly neighbors. Open to people of all ages, this pet-friendly community is a perfect place for anyone looking to lead a calm life just beyond the bustle of the city. This home has a large footprint with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms at over 1000 square feet.

Key facts

• Clear creek estates
• Mountainous views
• Parking

Tags

• CLEAR CREEK ESTATES
• MOUNTAINOUS VIEWS
• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 13905 Trinity Mountain Rd #3, French Gulch, CA 96033; Site directions available within listing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a park; Champion Southwood II model; Built in 2006
• Construction: Vinyl skirting; Composition roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Storage shed(s); Additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Ceiling fans; Other cooling; Propane heating; Radiant heating; Other heating
• Interior features: Skylight in living room; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups; Indoor laundry room; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#834 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,695 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.24%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,552
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13905 Trinity Mountain Rd Unit 80	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,412 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$96	94
13905 Trinity Mountain Rd #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-12%)	14mo	$28,500	$23	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $53,393
• Equity at exit: $31,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.48×
• Total profit: $127,023
• Equity at exit: $48,503

Cash invested: $19,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96033

• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $277/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $531

Max offer price $69,995

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,499
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,995 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,995 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,995 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,995 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,995 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,995 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,995 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,995 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,995 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,995 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,995 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,995 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,995 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,995 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,995 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,995 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $277 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 91.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$277
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $7,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,866
• After-tax cash flow: $6,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — French Gulch

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #834
• US rank: #23173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Gulch, CA
• Population (ZIP): 245

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% German 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Chinese 6% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $277 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.