5235 Celestial Ct · Manvel, TX 77583

$274,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · Townhouse · 68 Days on market

Built 2025 3,631 sqft lot $111/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN READY!! This Stunning Plan, with Luxury Touches throughout, is sure to Impress All! This Home houses 3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Covered Patio +1 Car Garage! The Open Concept Features Beautiful Upgraded Cabinets, Upgraded Tile Flooring, Quartz Countertops, Stainless Steel Appliances, and Elevated Kitchen Backsplash. The primary bedroom features a large walk-in shower, Dual Vanities, and a Spectacular Layout. This Stunning Plan, with Luxury Touches throughout, is sure to Impress All! For more info, contact Chesmar Homes in Meridiana.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Covered patio
• Upgraded cabinets

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• UPGRADED TILE FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ELEVATED KITCHEN BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Inframark; Annual association fee for recreation facilities; Community amenities include: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, basketball court, sport court, playground, park, trails, picnic area, dog park, and lake/pond

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story residential home; New construction by Chesmar Homes; Full ownership; Entry level: first floor
• Construction: Built in 2025; Brick, cement siding, and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sprinkler/Irrigation system; Private yard; Pond on lot; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Granite counters; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15' x 12'); Bedroom on the first floor (11'3" x 10'); Bedroom on the first floor (11'0" x 10')
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; Radiant attic barrier
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,632.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-459/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.2% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meridiana El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 998 students, 42% FRL); Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,692 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5235 Celestial Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	1mo	$274,990	$190	99
5255 Celestial Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+4%)	2mo	$284,990	$189	90
5246 Big Dipper Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+4%)	2mo	$275,990	$183	85
10115 Crescendo Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	4mo	$274,000	$189	83
5231 Celestial Ct	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-6%)	1mo	$267,015	$196	82
10119 Crescendo Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+4%)	3mo	$280,000	$186	76
10035 Crescendo Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	18mo	$260,000	$180	73
10027 Crescendo Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	20mo	$277,865	$192	72
10019 Crescendo Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	21mo	$278,790	$193	72
10018 Crescendo Way	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	23mo	$287,840	$199	69
10026 Crescendo Way	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,446 (0%)	23mo	$288,565	$200	68
10015 Crescendo Way	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-6%)	19mo	$268,240	$197	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-53,121
• Equity at exit: $41,396

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-71,600
• Equity at exit: $24,005

Cash invested: $77,737 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1148
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,456
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,664/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$111
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,305

Max offer price $270,868

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $40	+0% $-38	+5% $-117	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-217	-5% $-127	+0% $-38	+5% $51	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $32	base $-38	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,408
• Closing costs: $8,329
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $111 · $1,332/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-22
   price $274,990
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $279,990 Active
4. 2026-02-17
   historical
5. 2026-02-09
   price $279,990
6. 2026-01-12
   price $298,665
7. 2026-01-12
   price $298,415
8. 2026-01-10
   price $298,665
9. 2025-12-08
   price $303,665
10. 2025-08-31
    listed $298,665 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,369/yr (+$281/mo · 202.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,552
• − Property taxes: −$1,664
• − Insurance: −$1,388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − HOA: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$8,077
• Taxable loss: −$5,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $298,665 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $298,415 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $298,665 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $303,665 HARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listed $298,665 HARMLS