Fairport Plan · Canandaigua, NY 14424

$87,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 553 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 553 days

🏗️ New construction. The $87,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $48,401.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.1% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #519 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $335 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $77,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.56%
• DSCR: 5.74
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,401
• List price: $87,900
• Delta: 81.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 Oak Tree Dr Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	9mo	$42,500	$43	76
423 Mountain Ash Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	960 (+4%)	5mo	$62,000	$65	76
230 Crabapple Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	4mo	$50,000	$51	74
227 Crabapple St	0.18mi	3/1.0	980 (+6%)	10mo	$46,000	$47	69
205 Crabapple Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	11mo	$64,900	$61	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $79,126
• Equity at exit: $7,217

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.83×
• Total profit: $214,549
• Equity at exit: $4,185

Cash invested: $13,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $726/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $1,203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $423

Max offer price $48,401

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,100
• Closing costs: $1,452
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,900 Active 553 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,900 Active 552 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,900 Active 551 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,900 Active 550 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,900 Active 548 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $87,900 Active 545 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,900 Active 544 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,900 Active 543 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,900 Active 542 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $87,900 Active 539 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,900 Active 538 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $87,900 Active 537 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $87,900 Active 536 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $87,900 Active 535 DOM
15. 2024-12-13
    listed $87,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,711
• − Property taxes: −$726
• − Insurance: −$242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$1,408
• Taxable income: $14,537
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,489
• After-tax cash flow: $10,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovations across all systems and areas, including kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, HVAC, and landscaping. Significant value can be added through these updates, making it a good investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No kitchen photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.
• Major Bathrooms — No bathroom photos provided, but bathrooms in manufactured homes often need updates.
• Major Roof — No roof photos provided, but roofs on manufactured homes are typically in poor condition.
• Major Exterior — No exterior photos provided, but the siding and foundation of manufactured homes often need significant work.
• Major Flooring — No flooring photos provided, but flooring in manufactured homes is often worn out.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the walls and paint in manufactured homes are often in poor condition.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but these systems in manufactured homes are often outdated and in need of replacement.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the curb appeal of manufactured homes is often lacking.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase the home's appeal and value.
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updated bathrooms are crucial for attracting buyers.
• Resale Roof replacement — A new roof is essential for the home's structural integrity and value.
• Resale Exterior siding and foundation repair — Aesthetic improvements to the exterior can greatly enhance the home's curb appeal.
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring can make the home more attractive and functional.
• Resale Interior wall and paint refresh — Fresh paint and updated interior can make the home more inviting.
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained exterior can significantly boost the home's curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No kitchen photos provided, but the property is a manufactured home, which often requires significant kitchen renovations.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No bathroom photos provided, but bathrooms in manufactured homes often need updates.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No roof photos provided, but roofs on manufactured homes are typically in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No exterior photos provided, but the siding and foundation of manufactured homes often need significant work.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No flooring photos provided, but flooring in manufactured homes is often worn out.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No interior wall/paint photos provided, but the walls and paint in manufactured homes are often in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC/mechanical photos provided, but these systems in manufactured homes are often outdated and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No landscaping/curb appeal photos provided, but the curb appeal of manufactured homes is often lacking.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Kitchen renovation — A modern kitchen can significantly increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom updates — Updated bathrooms are crucial for attracting buyers. ↑
• Resale Roof replacement — A new roof is essential for the home's structural integrity and value. ↑
• Resale Exterior siding and foundation repair — Aesthetic improvements to the exterior can greatly enhance the home's curb appeal. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — New flooring can make the home more attractive and functional. ↑
• Resale Interior wall and paint refresh — Fresh paint and updated interior can make the home more inviting. ↑
• Resale HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Resale Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained exterior can significantly boost the home's curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman)
• NCES district ID: 3612300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,088
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5233
• State rank: #519 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Listed $87,900 Zillow