12 Petersson Cir · Crystal Lake, CT 06076

$220,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1982 1.39 ac lot $221/sqft · 23% below area Est $341k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Outdoor enthusiasts welcome - just minutes from Crystal Lake, Shenipsit State Forest, and Soapstone Mountain for outdoor activities. This raised ranch on a 1.39 acre corner lot in a quiet neighborhood. One car garage under. Shed for storage. Third bedroom is in the lower level., there is also potential for a den/family room in the lower level. Large, open, eat-in kitchen. Nestled in between Soapstone Mountain and Crystal Lake.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• Open eat-in kitchen
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• SHED FOR STORAGE
• OPEN EAT-IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.5% in Crystal Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#110 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford School District (town): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #99 of 153 in CT (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $220k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,794 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,267
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -35.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Spusta Rd	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+10%)	10mo	$340,000	$311	66
41 Spusta Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,132 (+14%)	20mo	$300,000	$265	52
51 Gulf Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+14%)	20mo	$275,000	$244	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-51,844
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,797
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06076

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,217/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,021

Max offer price $174,880

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $220,000 Active 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Outdoor enthusiasts welcome - just minutes from Crystal Lake, Shenipsit State Forest, and Soapstone Mountain for outdoor activities. This raised ranch on a 1.39 acre corner lot in a quiet neighborhood. One car garage under. Shed for storage. Third bedroom is in the lower level., there is also potential for a den/family room in the lower level. Large, open, eat-in kitchen. Nestled in between Soapstone Mountain and Crystal Lake.

2. 2026-03-11
   historical
3. 2025-06-23
   listed $250,000 Active
4. 2001-03-12
   soldstatus $111,900
5. 2001-01-04
   listed $109,900
6. 1991-12-26
   soldstatus $128,900
7. 1991-12-01
   soldstatus $128,900
8. 1990-05-02
   soldstatus $130,900
9. 1990-05-01
   soldstatus $130,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,217 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,462 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$20/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$4,217
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,662
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford School District
• NCES district ID: 0904290
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,653
• Composite: 36.16/100
• National rank: #4735
• State rank: #99 of 153 in CT

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #9618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,989

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Romanian 12% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.19%
• Current HPI: 251.5895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+68.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $220,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $250,000 Smart MLS
• 2001-03-12 Sold (MLS) $111,900 Smart MLS
• 2001-01-04 Listed $109,900 Smart MLS
• 1991-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $128,900 Public Records
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $128,900 Public Records
• 1990-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $130,900 Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $130,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $4,217 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.