8408 27 Ave · Beaver Lake, NE 68048

$20,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1970 0.29 ac lot Est $37k · 46% under ↓ 58% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Cap rate 47.1% vs local median 1.4% in Beaver Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conestoga Public Schools (rural): math 52% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #26 of 111 in NE (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 86 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $20,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.64%
• DSCR: 7.48
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $37,152
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8217 Auburn Rd	0.13mi	2/1.0 (+1)	938 (-9%)	9mo	$34,000	$36	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.16×
• Total profit: $40,069
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.20×
• Total profit: $90,724
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68048

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $445/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $190

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-26
   historical
2. 2026-05-22
   listed $20,000
3. 2003-09-30
   historical
4. 2002-04-02
   listed $47,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $445 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$445
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $8,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,002
• After-tax cash flow: $6,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conestoga Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3174200
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,758
• Composite: 49.19/100
• National rank: #2040
• State rank: #26 of 111 in NE

Livability — Beaver Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cass County · 13,435 people
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• Population (ZIP): 13,435
• Household income: $89,931
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 64.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,174 people
• By 2030: 26,293 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 26,112 · -0.2%
• By 2050: 25,329 · -3.2%
• By 2075: 23,744 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 20,901 · -20.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.2) · D 30.6% · R 67.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.2 2020: R+35.1 2016: R+39.1 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.50%
• Current HPI: 224.1437
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

-57.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $20,000 GPRMLS
• 2003-09-30 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2002-04-02 Listed $47,500 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $445 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.