1654 Opland Rd · Sage, MI 48624

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily · 118 Days on market

0.97 ac lot $132/sqft · 32% above area Est $113k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live the lake life without sacrificing privacy! Situated just off Pratt Lake on a spacious one-acre lot, this ranch-style home features three bedrooms, one bath and easy main-floor living. The expansive yard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or adding a pole building for storage. Enjoy peaceful country views with convenient lake access just minutes away-the perfect setting for relaxation and recreation.

Key facts

• One acre lot
• Outdoor entertaining
• Lake access

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY VIEWS
• LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $149k implies a 263% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $135,590 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.64%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,113
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 31.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1524 E Lake Point Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,139 (+1%)	13mo	$215,000	$189	66
1695 Opland Rd	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	981 (-13%)	12mo	$155,896	$159	60
4876 Cedar Dr Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-2%)	4mo	$132,500	$120	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $28,136
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $91,642
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $352/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,105

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-02-21
    listed $149,000 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Live the lake life without sacrificing privacy! Situated just off Pratt Lake on a spacious one-acre lot, this ranch-style home features three bedrooms, one bath and easy main-floor living. The expansive yard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening, or adding a pole building for storage. Enjoy peaceful country views with convenient lake access just minutes away-the perfect setting for relaxation and recreation.

17. 2025-08-08
    historical
18. 2025-07-30
    price $124,900
19. 2025-07-29
    price $124,900
20. 2025-07-15
    price $128,000
21. 2025-07-15
    price $128,000
22. 2025-07-10
    listed $129,900 Active
23. 2025-07-07
    price $129,900
24. 2024-07-07
    historical
25. 2024-07-07
    historical
26. 2024-07-01
    price $109,000
27. 2024-07-01
    price $109,000
28. 2024-06-17
    listed $119,000 Active
29. 2024-06-17
    listed $119,000 Active
30. 2024-03-05
    historical
31. 2024-02-27
    price $119,900
32. 2024-02-12
    listed $132,000 Active
33. 2017-08-28
    soldstatus $41,000
34. 2017-04-03
    listed $47,750
35. 2016-11-10
    historical
36. 2016-03-16
    listed $48,500
37. 2014-08-11
    soldstatus $42,650
38. 2014-05-10
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $352 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$971/yr (+$81/mo · 275.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$352
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $7,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,883
• After-tax cash flow: $7,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sage

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+231.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $124,900 WWMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $128,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $128,000 WWMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $129,900 WWMLS
• 2024-07-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $109,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $109,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-06-17 Listed $119,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-06-17 Listed $119,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-03-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-12 Listed $132,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-03 Listed $47,750 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-11-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-03-16 Listed $48,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $42,650 Public Records
• 2014-05-10 Listed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $352 · -63.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.