20628 E Bear Canyon Rd · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,355 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1990 7,841 sqft lot Est $230k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy cooler Northern Arizona living in this charming 3 bed 2 bath home conveniently located just 33 minutes from Anthem & 40 to Prescott! Right in the center of it all enjoy rural living but still close enough to the city!Nestled in a quiet small town you'll love the peaceful atmosphere without sacrificing convenience to city amenities.Built in 1990 this home features a spacious split bedroom floor plan perfect for privacy and functionality.The large backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening or simply relaxing under the open sky.Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway this property delivers the best of both worlds tranquil living with easy access to nearby cities. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of Northern Arizona charm!

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Large backyard
• Peaceful atmosphere

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• PEACEFUL ATMOSPHERE
• EASY ACCESS TO NEARBY CITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 7,841 (assessor)
• Financial info: FHA financing available (non-assumable)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Builder-sourced building area
• Exterior features: Wire fencing; Shed(s); Asphalt road access; City view; Dirt front and dirt back lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Full bathroom in the primary bedroom; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $185k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20809 E Antelope Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-0%)	3mo	$239,900	$178	80
20415 E Sierra Dr E #8	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+2%)	4mo	$289,000	$209	74
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+5%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	74
20629 E Prickly Pear Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+4%)	7mo	$199,900	$142	68
20720 E Larry Lane Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+13%)	6mo	$210,000	$138	66
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	63
20790 E Marble Canyon Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,494 (+10%)	3mo	$90,000	$60	58
20921 E Skyview Ln	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (+4%)	3mo	$340,000	$240	57
20907 E Marble Canyon Way	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-5%)	13mo	$235,000	$183	55
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-13%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	54
20929 E Coyote Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,477 (+9%)	1mo	$205,000	$139	54
20836 E Cactus Wren Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+14%)	13mo	$263,000	$170	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $131,351
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $362,508
• Equity at exit: $359,414

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $500/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $185,000 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Enjoy cooler Northern Arizona living in this charming 3 bed 2 bath home conveniently located just 33 minutes from Anthem & 40 to Prescott! Right in the center of it all enjoy rural living but still close enough to the city!Nestled in a quiet small town you'll love the peaceful atmosphere without sacrificing convenience to city amenities.Built in 1990 this home features a spacious split bedroom floor plan perfect for privacy and functionality.The large backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening or simply relaxing under the open sky.Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway this property delivers the best of both worlds tranquil living with easy access to nearby cities. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of Northern Arizona charm!

17. 2026-05-18
    listed $185,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Enjoy cooler Northern Arizona living in this charming 3 bed 2 bath home conveniently located just 33 minutes from Anthem & 40 to Prescott! Right in the center of it all enjoy rural living but still close enough to the city!Nestled in a quiet small town you'll love the peaceful atmosphere without sacrificing convenience to city amenities.Built in 1990 this home features a spacious split bedroom floor plan perfect for privacy and functionality.The large backyard offers plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, gardening or simply relaxing under the open sky.Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a weekend getaway this property delivers the best of both worlds tranquil living with easy access to nearby cities. Don't miss this opportunity to own a piece of Northern Arizona charm!

18. 2025-11-19
    historical
19. 2025-11-18
    historical
20. 2025-10-26
    price $182,000
21. 2025-10-17
    price $185,000
22. 2025-10-17
    price $185,000
23. 2025-09-01
    listed $195,000 Active
24. 2025-09-01
    listed $195,000 Active
25. 2020-12-11
    soldstatus $108,000
26. 2003-05-30
    soldstatus $5,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $500 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,221 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$721/yr (+$60/mo · 144.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$500
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $2,871
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$689
• After-tax cash flow: $5,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3263.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $182,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $185,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-12-11 Sold (MLS) $108,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-05-30 Sold (MLS) $5,500 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $500 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.