13832 Scarlett Song Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$299,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,721 sqft · Land · 132 Days on market

Built 2025 8,450 sqft lot $174/sqft · 6% below area Est $318k · 6% under $96/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

Key facts

• Move in ready
• Center island
• Spacious family room

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING
• INVITING ENTRANCE FOYER
• FRONT STUDY WITH FRENCH DOORS
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-752 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (44.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (44.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $167,186 (44.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.74%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,361
• List price: $299,999
• Delta: -5.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $115,944
• Equity at exit: $270,263

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $379,982
• Equity at exit: $582,832

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$550 /mo · $6,604/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,968

Max offer price $167,186

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-582	-5% $-667	+0% $-752	+5% $-837	+10% $-922
Rent	-10% $-911	-5% $-831	+0% $-752	+5% $-672	+10% $-593
Rate	-1.0pp $-601	-0.5pp $-676	base $-752	+0.5pp $-830	+1.0pp $-909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.27mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	0.46mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	0.53mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.53mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.53mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.53mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.54mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.56mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.59mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	0.63mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	25d	1	0.63mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.63mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.63mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	0.64mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.69mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.71mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	3d	1	0.76mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	0.78mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	0.78mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.82mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	13d	1	0.86mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	0.89mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.90mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.91mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	3d	1	0.97mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	21d	1	1.00mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	1.06mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	1.12mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	1.19mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	1.21mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	1.21mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	1.37mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	1.40mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	1.40mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	1.44mi
102 Schuylerville Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	45d	1	1.46mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,999 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,999 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,999 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,999 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    status Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

16. 2026-05-15
    price $299,999 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

17. 2026-02-13
    price $299,999 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Move-In Ready | 3 Beds | 2 Baths | Study | 1-Story | 1,721 Sq Ft | 2-Car Garage | Covered Outdoor Living | The Gunther is the kind of home that makes everyday life feel easy. This one-story layout starts with an inviting entrance foyer that leads to a front study with French doors—perfect for working from home, homework time, or a quiet flex space. Step into the spacious family room filled with natural light, where everything flows just right. The kitchen sits between the family room and breakfast area, keeping everyone connected. It features a center island, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry that keeps clutter out of sight. The primary bedroom is tucked away in the back of the home for extra privacy and includes a large walk-in closet and double doors leading to the ensuite bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Bedrooms 2 and 3 each have walk-in closets and share a full bath nearby—ideal for family, guests, or growing kiddos. This home is truly move-in ready, complete with a washer and dryer in the utility room, refrigerator, ceiling fans, and smart upgrades already in place. Just bring your furniture and your favorite throw pillows—The Gunther is ready when you are. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

18. 2026-02-09
    listed $314,040 Active 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Move-In Ready | 3 Beds | 2 Baths | Study | 1-Story | 1,721 Sq Ft | 2-Car Garage | Covered Outdoor Living | The Gunther is the kind of home that makes everyday life feel easy. This one-story layout starts with an inviting entrance foyer that leads to a front study with French doors—perfect for working from home, homework time, or a quiet flex space. Step into the spacious family room filled with natural light, where everything flows just right. The kitchen sits between the family room and breakfast area, keeping everyone connected. It features a center island, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry that keeps clutter out of sight. The primary bedroom is tucked away in the back of the home for extra privacy and includes a large walk-in closet and double doors leading to the ensuite bath with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. Bedrooms 2 and 3 each have walk-in closets and share a full bath nearby—ideal for family, guests, or growing kiddos. This home is truly move-in ready, complete with a washer and dryer in the utility room, refrigerator, ceiling fans, and smart upgrades already in place. Just bring your furniture and your favorite throw pillows—The Gunther is ready when you are. Visit our model and ask about current buyer incentives!

19. 2025-08-08
    historical 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

20. 2025-07-25
    status Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

21. 2025-07-25
    historical 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

22. 2025-07-04
    price $285,690 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

23. 2025-06-27
    listed $340,690 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    A hall tree/drop zone near the garage entrance keeps things organized, while an optional electric fireplace adds warmth to the heart of the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,604 · $550/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,604 · $550/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$6,604
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,936
• − Management: −$1,936
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$14,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $299,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $299,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $314,040 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-08 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-25 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $285,690 Zillow
• 2025-06-27 Listed $340,690 Zillow

Property tax history

+413.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,604 · +552.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.