1202 W Davis Dr · Nowata, OK 74048

$124,860

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1949 0.60 ac lot Est $115k · 8% over ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Key facts

• 0.6 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces south; Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Double oven; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first level (including a master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Cable TV; Ceiling fan(s); Gas log fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Nowata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#455 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nowata (town): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #234 of 270 in OK (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Nowata County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($863 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Nowata County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,275 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,244
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1202 W Davis Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,226 (0%)	0mo	$122,500	$100	100
929 W Shawnee St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,332 (+9%)	8mo	$146,000	$110	71
327 Mississippi St	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,315 (+7%)	19mo	$153,000	$116	62
418 W Delaware Ave	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (+2%)	12mo	$115,000	$92	59
349 N Pine St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-2%)	16mo	$113,500	$94	55
707 W Shawnee Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,127 (-8%)	23mo	$143,000	$127	51
328 W Choctaw Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,306 (+6%)	22mo	$88,000	$67	46
206 S Hickory St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,352 (+10%)	11mo	$105,000	$78	41
324 W Modoc	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+3%)	24mo	$45,000	$36	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $49,563
• Equity at exit: $84,514

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.95×
• Total profit: $138,242
• Equity at exit: $158,750

Cash invested: $34,961 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74048

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $387/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $936

Max offer price $124,860

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,215
• Closing costs: $3,746
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $124,860
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $134,860 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,124 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: +$737/yr (+$61/mo · 190.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,994
• − Property taxes: −$387
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$3,632
• Taxable loss: −$623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$149
• After-tax cash flow: $1,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nowata
• NCES district ID: 4021930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $37,644
• Composite: 11.73/100
• National rank: #9689
• State rank: #234 of 270 in OK

Livability — Nowata

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #21518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nowata, OK
• City population: 5,592
• Population (ZIP): 5,592

Population outlook (Nowata County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,711 people
• By 2030: 10,803 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 10,984 · +2.5%
• By 2050: 11,094 · +3.6%
• By 2075: 11,730 · +9.5%
• By 2100: 11,734 · +9.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Native American 16% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nowata

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 15.8% · R 82.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+66.0 2016: R+60.9 2012: R+39.0 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 237.1251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $124,860 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-20 Listed $134,860 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $387 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.