2331 Baron Dr · Holiday, FL 34690

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1972 4,250 sqft lot Est $137k · 43% under $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your Slice of Paradise Awaits! Double Wide on OWNED LAND in a Vibrant 55+ Holiday Community! Embrace the best of Florida living in this spacious and comfortable double-wide manufactured home, ideally situated on your very own land within a highly sought-after 55+ community in Holiday, Florida! Forget lot rent and enjoy the financial freedom that comes with true homeownership. This is your chance to settle into a friendly, active, and convenient lifestyle on the beautiful Gulf Coast. Key Highlights of Your New Home: Owned Land – No Lot Rent! This is a rare and significant advantage! You own the land your home sits on, providing long-term security, control, and no escalating monthly lot

Key facts

• Storage solutions
• Owned land
• Outdoor living

Tags

• OWNED LAND
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• STORAGE SOLUTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• Financial info: Total annual fees $630
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $52.50; Association required (Jerry); Clubhouse; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room / dining room combo; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $792 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $78k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.49%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,280
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2331 Baron Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$73	94
2402 Prestige Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,012 (+5%)	9mo	$145,000	$143	80
1850 Arcadia Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	933 (-3%)	12mo	$170,000	$182	57
1850 Mary Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$114,000	$108	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $32,708
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $73,829
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,153/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	5d	1	0.33mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	24d	1	0.36mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	17d	1	0.37mi
5338 Nancy Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,430	$1.66	24d	1	0.37mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	0.47mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	5d	1	0.54mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	24d	1	0.55mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	14d	1	0.77mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	5d	1	0.80mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	14d	1	0.82mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	5d	1	0.83mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.83mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.85mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	24d	1	0.89mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	20d	1	0.91mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	24d	1	0.92mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	24d	1	0.93mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	24d	1	0.95mi
1551 Swordbill Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	11d	1	0.95mi
5723 Silver Spur Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,450	$1.85	24d	1	0.96mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.97mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	24d	1	0.97mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,633	$1.59	2d	13	0.99mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	24d	1	1.00mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	1.01mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	1.06mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	24d	1	1.14mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	24d	1	1.18mi
5913 Appletree Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1028	$2,300	$2.24	17d	1	1.19mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	5d	1	1.21mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	24d	1	1.24mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	14d	1	1.24mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,673	$1.65	12d	1	1.38mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   listed $78,000 Active
3. 2025-11-09
   historical
4. 2025-05-30
   listed $80,000 Active
5. 1996-04-17
   soldstatus $28,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,153
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $8,818
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,116
• After-tax cash flow: $7,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+173.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listed $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,153 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.