215 Clarence St · Dayton, TX 77535

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1965 0.50 ac lot Est $248k · 34% under ↓ 27% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated and full of character, this charming single-family home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath on an impressive oversized 21,824 sq ft lot. A quaint covered front porch welcomes you inside, where soaring 10-foot ceilings and a stylish blend of modern gray tones create an inviting atmosphere. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with granite countertops and a convenient breakfast bar, ideal for casual dining or hosting guests. Generous outdoor space provides endless opportunities for gatherings, gardening, or future expansion. Blending

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Outdoor space
• Granite countertops

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Has additional parcels
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Built in 1965; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Wood siding; Block foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 11); Additional bedroom on the first floor (14 x 12)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Window unit; Cooling: Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($673/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Wilson J H (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,396 students, 74% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,971 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,346
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 S Winfree St	0.24mi	2/1.0	912 (-11%)	18mo	$155,000	$170	56
105 W Barrow St	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,154 (+13%)	14mo	$280,000	$243	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-23,123
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,369
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1233
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,810/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,479

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $103	+0% $56	+5% $9	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-5	+0% $56	+5% $117	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $98	base $56	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 E Houston St Dayton, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,775	$1.56	0d	1	0.16mi
704 E Waring St Dayton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$1,200	$1.50	0d	16	0.77mi
1457 W Clayton St Dayton, TX	2.0	2.0	946	$1,099	$1.16	26d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-15
   listed $165,000 Active
4. 2024-09-23
   historical
5. 2022-11-27
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,810 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$17/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,810
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$493
• After-tax cash flow: $1,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-27 Listed $225,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,810 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.