11944 Summerhaven Cir · Lyman, MS 39503

$229,800

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,479 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2005 0.25 ac lot $93/sqft · 23% below area Est $317k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to Sell! This spacious four-bedroom home in Gulfport offers a functional layout and an incredible opportunity in a prime location. Full of potential and ready for your personal touch, this property is conveniently situated near the naval base, shopping, dining, and interstate access--placing everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking to create your own space, this is your chance to bring your vision to life. The price reflects updates needed, including the rear porch, which needs to be replaced or removed, and a non-working AC unit. An AC quote is available in the attached documents for your review. Added bonus: No flood insurance required, and the refrigerator will remain. Don't miss your opportunity to turn this property into something truly special.

Key facts

• Naval base
• Interstate access
• Shopping

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• NAVAL BASE
• SHOPPING
• DINING
• INTERSTATE ACCESS
• REAR PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,777 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,650
• List price: $229,800
• Delta: -27.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11973 Live Oak Cv	0.15mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,550 (+3%)	2mo	$485,000	$190	74
11144 River Bend Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,300 (-7%)	1mo	$290,000	$126	64
11999 Ol Oak Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,784 (+12%)	1mo	$465,000	$167	61
11956 Ol Oak Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,661 (+7%)	12mo	$489,900	$184	58
12024 Ol Oaks Dr	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,297 (-7%)	13mo	$379,999	$165	57
11936 Summerhaven Cir	0.01mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,841 (+15%)	13mo	$285,000	$100	53
11318 River Bend Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,211 (-11%)	4mo	$278,000	$126	46
18123 Lake Vista Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,163 (-13%)	6mo	$259,900	$120	44
11201 Cypress Bayou Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,199 (-11%)	8mo	$274,900	$125	44
18026 Lake Vista Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,142 (-14%)	2mo	$274,900	$128	42
11235 Cypress Bayou Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,226 (-10%)	13mo	$269,000	$121	41
11222 Cypress Bayou Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,113 (-15%)	10mo	$274,000	$130	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-14,510
• Equity at exit: $34,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $45,095
• Equity at exit: $19,869

Cash invested: $64,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,205
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,256/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,885

Max offer price $229,800

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $281	+0% $216	+5% $151	+10% $86
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $131	+0% $216	+5% $301	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $274	base $216	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,450
• Closing costs: $6,894
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11604 Caroline Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,850	$1.11	45d	1	0.77mi
11571 Caroline Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1950	$2,000	$1.03	44d	1	0.80mi
17986 Restoration Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1730	$2,100	$1.21	14d	1	0.95mi
10749 Chapelwood Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,250	$0.98	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,800 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,800 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,800 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,800 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,800 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,800 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,800 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,800 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,800 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,800 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,800 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,800 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,800 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,800 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $229,900 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Priced to Sell! This spacious four-bedroom home in Gulfport offers a functional layout and an incredible opportunity in a prime location. Full of potential and ready for your personal touch, this property is conveniently situated near the naval base, shopping, dining, and interstate access--placing everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking to create your own space, this is your chance to bring your vision to life. The price reflects updates needed, including the rear porch, which needs to be replaced or removed, and a non-working AC unit. An AC quote is available in the attached documents for your review. Added bonus: No flood insurance required, and the refrigerator will remain. Don't miss your opportunity to turn this property into something truly special.

16. 2026-04-18
    price $230,000 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Priced to Sell! This spacious four-bedroom home in Gulfport offers a functional layout and an incredible opportunity in a prime location. Full of potential and ready for your personal touch, this property is conveniently situated near the naval base, shopping, dining, and interstate access--placing everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking to create your own space, this is your chance to bring your vision to life. The price reflects updates needed, including the rear porch, which needs to be replaced or removed, and a non-working AC unit. An AC quote is available in the attached documents for your review. Added bonus: No flood insurance required, and the refrigerator will remain. Don't miss your opportunity to turn this property into something truly special.

17. 2026-03-27
    listed $240,000 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Priced to Sell! This spacious four-bedroom home in Gulfport offers a functional layout and an incredible opportunity in a prime location. Full of potential and ready for your personal touch, this property is conveniently situated near the naval base, shopping, dining, and interstate access--placing everything you need just minutes away. Whether you're an investor or a buyer looking to create your own space, this is your chance to bring your vision to life. The price reflects updates needed, including the rear porch, which needs to be replaced or removed, and a non-working AC unit. An AC quote is available in the attached documents for your review. Added bonus: No flood insurance required, and the refrigerator will remain. Don't miss your opportunity to turn this property into something truly special.

18. 2026-02-17
    historical
19. 2026-02-10
    price $256,900
20. 2026-02-05
    price $259,900
21. 2026-01-29
    price $263,900
22. 2026-01-21
    price $269,900
23. 2026-01-14
    price $276,900
24. 2026-01-08
    price $279,900
25. 2026-01-05
    price $283,900
26. 2026-01-03
    price $286,900
27. 2025-12-22
    price $296,900
28. 2025-12-19
    listed $298,900 Active
29. 2021-10-01
    historical
30. 2021-10-01
    historical
31. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus
32. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus
33. 2021-02-22
    listed $239,900
34. 2014-12-23
    listed $199,999
35. 2013-07-01
    soldstatus
36. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus
37. 2013-03-25
    listed $189,900
38. 2012-09-28
    listed $189,900
39. 2008-06-02
    soldstatus
40. 2008-05-28
    soldstatus
41. 2007-12-10
    listed $215,000
42. 2006-07-21
    soldstatus
43. 2006-02-06
    listed $229,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,256 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,872
• − Property taxes: −$2,256
• − Insurance: −$1,149
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − Depreciation: −$6,685
• Taxable loss: −$1,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$291
• After-tax cash flow: $2,881/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $229,900 MLSU
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $230,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-27 Listed $240,000 MLSU
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $256,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $259,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $263,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $269,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $276,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $279,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $283,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $286,900 MLSU
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $296,900 MLSU
• 2025-12-19 Listed $298,900 MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-02-22 Listed $239,900 MLSU
• 2014-12-23 Listed $199,999 MLSU
• 2013-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-06-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-03-25 Listed $189,900 MLSU
• 2012-09-28 Listed $189,900 MLSU
• 2008-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-28 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-12-10 Listed $215,000 MLSU
• 2006-07-21 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2006-02-06 Listed $229,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,256 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.