1537 N Ave I · West Odessa, TX 79763

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2017 0.43 ac lot ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1537 N Ave I! Located just outside of loop 338 on 0.43 acres and featuring 3200 sq ft with 3 bedrooms 2 full bathrooms 2 living areas LARGE open concept with vaulted ceilings and needing a few finishing touches.

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $858 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,026 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,346/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 842% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.99%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $28,698
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $95,238
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79763

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,070/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,259

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $949	-5% $903	+0% $858	+5% $813	+10% $768
Rent	-10% $673	-5% $766	+0% $858	+5% $951	+10% $1,043
Rate	-1.0pp $939	-0.5pp $899	base $858	+0.5pp $817	+1.0pp $775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
537 Avenue B Unit B Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1918	$2,300	$1.20	44d	1	0.92mi
2 Star Cir Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-04-29
   listed $230,000 Active 222-char remark
8. 2026-04-02
   price $219,900
9. 2026-03-14
   price $230,000
10. 2026-02-25
    price $250,000
11. 2026-02-13
    price $285,000
12. 2014-05-28
    soldstatus
13. 2013-03-18
    soldstatus
14. 2011-07-06
    soldstatus
15. 2010-06-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,070 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,858/yr (+$155/mo · 173.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,070
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,252
• − Management: −$2,252
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $8,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,958
• After-tax cash flow: $8,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Odessa

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1026
• US rank: #18223

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 61,683
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,174
• Household income: $56,877
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 842.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 24% White 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.81%
• Current HPI: 254.9773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $160,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $219,900 ODMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $230,000 ODMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $250,000 ODMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $285,000 ODMLS
• 2014-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,070 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.