4221 Tensity Dr · Raleigh, NC 27604

$224,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2003 4,792 sqft lot Est $324k · 31% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well cared proerty in great conditions, hardwoods and tile on first level, new carpet in second level. Gas logs FP, cathedral ceiling in master bedroom. Vinil siding, fenced-in backyard, convenient to everything.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Recent improvements
• Functional layout

Tags

• RECENT IMPROVEMENTS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: County: Wake
• HOA & community: Community association (Ashley Place HOA) with an annual fee of $260

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: House; Two levels
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Private maintained road

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and hardwood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Durant Road Elementary (math 43% / reading 50%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 641 students, 59% FRL); Millbrook High (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 2,421 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 400 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $225k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,150 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,300
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4217 Toccopola St	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,290 (-6%)	8mo	$290,000	$225	77
2716 Dove Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-4%)	8mo	$320,000	$241	64
4257 Beacon Heights Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,395 (+1%)	10mo	$309,000	$222	61
4216 Lake Woodard Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,389 (+1%)	12mo	$292,000	$210	60
2209 Crampton Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,417 (+3%)	3mo	$379,900	$268	60
2104 Charny Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,513 (+10%)	21mo	$355,000	$235	56
2705 Kempsford Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,461 (+6%)	12mo	$340,000	$233	54
4216 Beacon Heights Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	2mo	$310,000	$248	49
4601 Ellsmere Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,405 (+2%)	19mo	$330,000	$235	48
2712 Kempsford Pl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+11%)	8mo	$210,000	$137	46
2012 Summer Shire Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+11%)	10mo	$370,000	$241	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-45,837
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-65,839
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27604

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,580/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,912

Max offer price $213,732

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4021 Northstone Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,365	$1.44	24d	1	0.30mi
4328 Bartholomew Cir Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,799	$1.23	4d	1	0.38mi
3606 Elm Grove Ln Raleigh, NC	3.0	3.5	1772	$1,995	$1.13	24d	1	0.58mi
3601 Elm Grove Ln Raleigh, NC	4.0	3.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.59mi
2905 Faversham Pl Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.5	920	$1,200	$1.30	21d	1	0.63mi
3505 Skycrest Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1597	$2,295	$1.44	4d	1	0.69mi
2521 Laurel Valley Way Raleigh, NC	3.0	3.5	1800	$1,950	$1.08	14d	1	0.69mi
2313 Carthage Cir Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,825	$1.35	17d	1	0.70mi
4941 Southern Magnolia Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	3.5	1700	$1,925	$1.13	4d	1	0.73mi
4945 Southern Magnolia Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	3.5	1688	$1,899	$1.12	24d	1	0.74mi
3405 E Jameson Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1425	$1,875	$1.32	16d	1	0.96mi
3705 Votive Ln Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	997	$1,650	$1.65	4d	1	0.97mi
4940 Harbour Towne Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1475	$1,895	$1.28	4d	1	1.01mi
1701 Kingston Heath Way Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,995	$1.29	24d	1	1.07mi
1749 Kingston Heath Way Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1789	$2,150	$1.20	17d	1	1.07mi
2015 Wave Crest Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1058	$1,934	$1.83	2d	33	1.11mi
1728 Kingston Heath Way Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,995	$1.24	24d	1	1.12mi
2849 Bedfordshire Ct Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1050	$1,600	$1.52	12d	1	1.16mi
2404 Hill St Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,700	$1.65	11d	1	1.18mi
2305 Hill St Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,550	$1.50	24d	1	1.21mi
2421 Hill St Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,700	$1.65	11d	1	1.23mi
5263 Eagle Trace Dr Unit 1 Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,950	$1.59	4d	1	1.25mi
1607 Oakland Hills Way Raleigh, NC	2.0	3.0	1204	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	1.26mi
2212 Persimmon Ridge Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1459	$1,700	$1.17	24d	1	1.26mi
1601 Oakland Hills Way Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1274	$1,550	$1.22	24d	1	1.26mi
4021 Beaufain St Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1514	$1,805	$1.19	24d	1	1.30mi
1051 Topsail Sound Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,504	$1.53	4d	1	1.30mi
3520 Pinetree Grove LN Brentwood, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,784	$1.76	16d	24	1.32mi
5048 Babbling Brook Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1747	$1,865	$1.07	4d	1	1.34mi
2027 Turtle Point Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1244	$1,575	$1.27	4d	1	1.36mi
5412 Grand Traverse Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1590	$1,950	$1.23	20d	1	1.40mi
3712 Old Coach Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1190	$1,100	$0.92	4d	1	1.40mi
1727 Crag Burn Ln Raleigh, NC	3.0	3.0	1584	$1,895	$1.20	11d	1	1.41mi
1727 Crag Burn Ln Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1584	$1,895	$1.20	24d	1	1.41mi
4622 Ivy Blossom Ln Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,895	$1.10	24d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $224,900 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   listed $259,900 Active
5. 2026-01-07
   historical
6. 2025-10-08
   price $285,000
7. 2025-07-21
   price $295,000
8. 2025-07-08
   listed $305,000 Active
9. 2009-11-25
   soldstatus $130,000 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Well cared proerty in great conditions, hardwoods and tile on first level, new carpet in second level. Gas logs FP, cathedral ceiling in master bedroom. Vinil siding, fenced-in backyard, convenient to everything.

10. 2009-11-25
    soldstatus $130,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Well cared proerty in great conditions, hardwoods and tile on first level, new carpet in second level. Gas logs FP, cathedral ceiling in master bedroom. Vinil siding, fenced-in backyard, convenient to everything.

11. 2009-11-25
    soldstatus $130,000

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Well cared proerty in great conditions, hardwoods and tile on first level, new carpet in second level. Gas logs FP, cathedral ceiling in master bedroom. Vinil siding, fenced-in backyard, convenient to everything.

12. 2009-10-01
    historical 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Well cared proerty in great conditions, hardwoods and tile on first level, new carpet in second level. Gas logs FP, cathedral ceiling in master bedroom. Vinil siding, fenced-in backyard, convenient to everything.

13. 2009-09-25
    listed $130,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Well cared proerty in great conditions, hardwoods and tile on first level, new carpet in second level. Gas logs FP, cathedral ceiling in master bedroom. Vinil siding, fenced-in backyard, convenient to everything.

14. 2009-09-25
    listed $130,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Well cared proerty in great conditions, hardwoods and tile on first level, new carpet in second level. Gas logs FP, cathedral ceiling in master bedroom. Vinil siding, fenced-in backyard, convenient to everything.

15. 2009-02-06
    historical
16. 2008-08-09
    listed $136,900
17. 2008-07-12
    historical
18. 2008-01-18
    listed $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,580 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,580 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,580
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,758
• − Management: −$1,758
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,647
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raleigh

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1028

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raleigh, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 569,344
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,514
• Household income: $70,375
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1951.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 18% Vietnamese 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -346.76%
• Current HPI: 234.0741
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.27%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+85.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $259,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $285,000 TMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $295,000 TMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $305,000 TMLS
• 2009-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2009-11-25 Sold (MLS) $130,000 AMLSNC
• 2009-11-25 Sold (MLS) $130,000 TMLS
• 2009-10-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-09-25 Listed $130,000 AMLSNC
• 2009-09-25 Listed $130,000 TMLS
• 2009-02-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2008-08-09 Listed $136,900 TMLS
• 2008-07-12 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2008-01-18 Listed $140,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,580 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.