276 Osprey Ln · Palm Coast, FL 32136

$90,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other · 40 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom waterfront home, in a gated, golf cart-friendly community with resort style amenities. Move in ready, Newer AC, under 2 years old, keeps you cool and comfortable. Roof only 7 years old gives you peace of mind for years to come. Double carport that keeps your car protected from the elements. Large storage shed is perfect for tools, toys, or hobby space. Updated kitchen, with sleek finishes. Spacious Florida room with AC ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Outdoor firepit, for cozy nights by the water. Waterfront living community. The Community offers the following, Boat ramp and private dock, Heated pool, Planned community activities, Motorcycle friendly,

Key facts

• Gated community
• Newer ac
• Waterfront home

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• GATED COMMUNITY
• GOLF CART FRIENDLY
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• NEWER AC
• DOUBLE CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.77%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $31,944
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $87,801
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32136

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $792	-5% $761	+0% $730	+5% $699	+10% $668
Rent	-10% $595	-5% $663	+0% $730	+5% $798	+10% $865
Rate	-1.0pp $775	-0.5pp $753	base $730	+0.5pp $707	+1.0pp $683

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Winthrop Ln Flagler Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,700	$1.28	25d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $90,000
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $9,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,643
• − Management: −$1,643
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,793
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,870
• After-tax cash flow: $6,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready waterfront home in a gated community offers a good condition with recent updates and amenities. Minor exterior painting and smart home integration would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,363
• Household income: $78,818
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 124.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.19%
• Current HPI: 361.8323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $90,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $9,000 FSBO.com