27 Meadow Ln · Robertsville, NJ 07746

$988,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,167 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1984 0.50 ac lot Est $1007k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL 5 BEDROOM HOME IN PARC CHATEAU FACING GREEN ACRES. GREENHOUSE SUN ROOM WITH HOT TUB. COMPLETE APPLIANCE PACKAGE AND ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS REMAIN.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Upgraded kitchen
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE GLASS-ENCLOSED SUNROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $988k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $940k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $820k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $820k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Robertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#258 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Marlboro Township School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 472 in NJ (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $286k; list at $988k implies a 245% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $820,000 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,007,106
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Homestead Cir	0.33mi	4/3.5	3,144 (-1%)	1mo	$1,050,000	$334	79
8 Eileen Ln	0.19mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,229 (+2%)	10mo	$1,060,000	$328	71
39 Homestead Cir	0.38mi	4/3.0	3,030 (-4%)	5mo	$835,000	$276	69
126 Wyncrest Rd	0.36mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,015 (-5%)	4mo	$960,000	$318	65
114 Murray Hill Ter	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,873 (-9%)	11mo	$711,000	$247	59
10 Harvest Ct	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,730 (-14%)	20mo	$1,155,000	$423	50
93 Clubhouse Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,873 (-9%)	17mo	$649,000	$226	49
8 Little Ct	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,873 (-9%)	19mo	$675,000	$235	42
11 Sweet Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,786 (-12%)	18mo	$1,099,999	$395	42
22 Edie Dr	0.54mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,000 (-5%)	22mo	$1,100,000	$367	41
7 Owens Rd	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,712 (-14%)	10mo	$818,000	$302	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-177,179
• Equity at exit: $147,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-176,072
• Equity at exit: $85,424

Cash invested: $276,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07746

• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,181
• Tax from tax record: −$1,154 /mo · $13,854/yr
• Insurance: −$412
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,722
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,541

Max offer price $940,419

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $247,000
• Closing costs: $29,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Bennett Ct Marlboro, NJ	5.0	3.5	4020	$8,200	$2.04	20d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $988,000 Active
3. 1996-11-06
   soldstatus $286,500
4. 1996-10-18
   soldstatus $286,500 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL 5 BEDROOM HOME IN PARC CHATEAU FACING GREEN ACRES. GREENHOUSE SUN ROOM WITH HOT TUB. COMPLETE APPLIANCE PACKAGE AND ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS REMAIN.

5. 1996-09-30
   historical 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL 5 BEDROOM HOME IN PARC CHATEAU FACING GREEN ACRES. GREENHOUSE SUN ROOM WITH HOT TUB. COMPLETE APPLIANCE PACKAGE AND ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS REMAIN.

6. 1996-05-25
   listed $310,000 155-char remark

   Show marketing remark (155 chars)

   BEAUTIFUL 5 BEDROOM HOME IN PARC CHATEAU FACING GREEN ACRES. GREENHOUSE SUN ROOM WITH HOT TUB. COMPLETE APPLIANCE PACKAGE AND ALL WINDOW TREATMENTS REMAIN.

7. 1988-08-29
   soldstatus $340,000
8. 1984-11-01
   soldstatus $160,690

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,854 · $1,154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,228 · $1,602/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,374/yr (+$448/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $98,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,343
• − Property taxes: −$13,854
• − Insurance: −$4,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,872
• − Management: −$7,872
• − Depreciation: −$28,742
• Taxable loss: −$20,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,854
• After-tax cash flow: $1,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlboro Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409720
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $134,870
• Composite: 58.71/100
• National rank: #978
• State rank: #42 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Robertsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #7369

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,137

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 8% Chinese 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -470.82%
• Current HPI: 277.775
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+514.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $988,000 MOMLS
• 1996-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $286,500 Public Records
• 1996-10-18 Sold (MLS) $286,500 MOMLS
• 1996-09-30 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1996-05-25 Listed $310,000 MOMLS
• 1988-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $160,690 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,854 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.