164 Cinnabar Ln #4 · Kyle, TX 78640

$220,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,479 sqft · Condo · 35 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $149/sqft · 8% below area Est $240k · 8% under $74/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

Key facts

• Scenic trails
• Outdoor recreation
• Pickleball courts

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED WALK IN SHOWER
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• SCENIC TRAILS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Waterstone Village Townhomes HOA; HOA fee $74 per month; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (detached/attached not specified)
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: 2 stories; New construction; North-facing; Has a view; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Meritage Homes; Spray foam insulation; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; Front porch; Community pool; Fire sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($981/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $190,751 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,990
• List price: $220,990
• Delta: -7.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,230
• Equity at exit: $32,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,589
• Equity at exit: $19,107

Cash invested: $61,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,203/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,804

Max offer price $220,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $144	+0% $82	+5% $19	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $6	+0% $82	+5% $157	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $138	base $82	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,248
• Closing costs: $6,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Fossil Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,000	$1.25	5d	1	0.29mi
185 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,800	$1.31	12d	1	0.30mi
232 Voss Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,895	$1.29	5d	1	0.34mi
376 Musgrav Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,988	$1.35	17d	1	0.55mi
141 Opal Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,000	$2.26	3d	93	0.64mi
184 Unity Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	1704	$2,000	$1.17	44d	1	0.68mi
125 Voyager Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,800	$1.22	44d	1	0.70mi
364 Kenai Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,000	$1.73	5d	1	0.74mi
265 Garner Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,250	$1.45	44d	1	0.74mi
190 Sormonne Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	24d	1	0.78mi
147 Otter Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,850	$1.14	13d	1	0.85mi
157 Mammoth Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	24d	1	0.85mi
148 River Rise Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1622	$1,800	$1.11	44d	1	0.88mi
149 Biscayne Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	18d	1	0.90mi
106 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	18d	1	0.98mi
112 Lakeview Ct Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,795	$1.02	5d	1	0.98mi
195 Salt Springs Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	18d	1	1.01mi
185 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,700	$1.16	15d	1	1.03mi
149 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	15d	1	1.03mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	5d	1	1.03mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	15d	1	1.03mi
155 Creekside Villa Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	24d	1	1.03mi
121 Yellowstone Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,200	$1.28	24d	1	1.04mi
1180 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1822	$1,999	$1.10	5d	1	1.11mi
149 Red Sun Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,850	$1.30	11d	1	1.12mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	12d	1	1.21mi
240 New Country Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,650	$1.49	2d	1	1.21mi
126 Avre Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	44d	1	1.21mi
1689 Woodlands Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$1,850	$1.22	44d	1	1.22mi
261 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,849	$1.35	44d	1	1.27mi
187 Rummel Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,795	$1.45	44d	1	1.28mi
224 Blooming Trl Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,200	$1.45	18d	1	1.29mi
526 Harvest Moon Pkwy Kyle, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1624	$1,399	$0.86	2d	1	1.39mi
160 Night Sky Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	5d	1	1.40mi
106 Gambel Oak Way San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$1,600	$1.56	13d	1	1.43mi
1561 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,750	$1.46	3d	1	1.43mi
273 Tower Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,795	$1.43	18d	1	1.44mi
718 Stampede Rd San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.5	1262	$1,795	$1.42	5d	1	1.48mi
1628 Arbor Knot Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,180	$1.35	44d	1	1.48mi
510 New Bridge Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1359	$1,695	$1.25	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,990 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,990 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,990 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,990 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,990 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $220,990 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $220,990 Active 1648-char remark
15. 2026-04-29
    price
16. 2026-04-22
    price $220,990

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

17. 2026-03-25
    price $225,990

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

18. 2026-03-12
    price $245,990

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

19. 2026-03-11
    price
20. 2026-02-11
    price $255,990

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

21. 2026-02-11
    price

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

22. 2026-02-06
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

23. 2026-02-06
    price $256,140

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

24. 2025-12-02
    price
25. 2025-11-24
    listed Active
26. 2025-10-24
    historical

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

27. 2025-10-22
    listed $281,140 Active

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    The open concept kitchen, great room, and dining rooms make the perfect space to host guests. Linen cabinets with black pearl granite countertops, warm beige EVP flooring, and warm multi-tone taupe carpet in our Chic package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,044 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,841/yr (+$237/mo · 236.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,379
• − Property taxes: −$1,203
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$6,429
• Taxable loss: −$2,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$666
• After-tax cash flow: $1,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring luxury vinyl plank flooring and professional architectural styling. The highest-ROI updates include painting, replacing countertops, and installing smart home devices.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves kitchen functionality and appearance.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves kitchen functionality and appearance. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $220,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $220,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $225,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $245,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $256,140 Zillow
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-24 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $281,140 Zillow

Property tax history

+30.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,203 · +30.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.