4613 Lisa Ct · Arden Hills, MN 55112

$140,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,064 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition 827 sqft lot $68/sqft · 65% below area $610/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious double wide mobile home located in Arden Hills. This well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering plenty of room for comfortable living. The kitchen has been fully updated and includes all appliances, along with a washer and dryer for added convenience. The open layout provides generous living and dining space, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. The home also offers tight parking for up to 4 vehicles. Monthly lot rent is $610. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

Key facts

• Built 1994
• Listed 132 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.0% in Arden Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#113 in MN, #2,556 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.40%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,374
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -64.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,005
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $42,356
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55112

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$610
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,997

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $437	-5% $388	+0% $340	+5% $291	+10% $243
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $244	+0% $340	+5% $436	+10% $531
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $375	base $340	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1386 Arden View Dr Saint Paul, MN	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,600	$1.44	18d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $610 · $7,320/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-04-20
    price $140,000 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious double wide mobile home located in Arden Hills. This well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering plenty of room for comfortable living. The kitchen has been fully updated and includes all appliances, along with a washer and dryer for added convenience. The open layout provides generous living and dining space, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. The home also offers tight parking for up to 4 vehicles. Monthly lot rent is $610. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

11. 2026-04-03
    status Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious double wide mobile home located in Arden Hills. This well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering plenty of room for comfortable living. The kitchen has been fully updated and includes all appliances, along with a washer and dryer for added convenience. The open layout provides generous living and dining space, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. The home also offers tight parking for up to 4 vehicles. Monthly lot rent is $610. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

12. 2026-03-18
    status Pending 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious double wide mobile home located in Arden Hills. This well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering plenty of room for comfortable living. The kitchen has been fully updated and includes all appliances, along with a washer and dryer for added convenience. The open layout provides generous living and dining space, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. The home also offers tight parking for up to 4 vehicles. Monthly lot rent is $610. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

13. 2026-03-10
    historical Contingent - Inspection 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious double wide mobile home located in Arden Hills. This well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering plenty of room for comfortable living. The kitchen has been fully updated and includes all appliances, along with a washer and dryer for added convenience. The open layout provides generous living and dining space, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. The home also offers tight parking for up to 4 vehicles. Monthly lot rent is $610. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

14. 2026-01-16
    listed $150,000 Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious double wide mobile home located in Arden Hills. This well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering plenty of room for comfortable living. The kitchen has been fully updated and includes all appliances, along with a washer and dryer for added convenience. The open layout provides generous living and dining space, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. The home also offers tight parking for up to 4 vehicles. Monthly lot rent is $610. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

15. 2026-01-14
    historical $150,000 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious double wide mobile home located in Arden Hills. This well-maintained home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering plenty of room for comfortable living. The kitchen has been fully updated and includes all appliances, along with a washer and dryer for added convenience. The open layout provides generous living and dining space, making it ideal for families or anyone needing extra room. The home also offers tight parking for up to 4 vehicles. Monthly lot rent is $610. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,330
• − Management: −$2,330
• − HOA: −$7,320
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$583
• After-tax cash flow: $3,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained double-wide mobile home offers spacious living with updated kitchen and bathrooms. It is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great opportunity for affordable living in a desirable area.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value
• Both Update lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and value
• Both Install new windows — Improves energy efficiency and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Update lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and value ↑
• Both Install new windows — Improves energy efficiency and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mounds View Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2722950
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,492
• Composite: 54.04/100
• National rank: #1390
• State rank: #30 of 301 in MN

Livability — Arden Hills

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #2556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living D Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arden Hills, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $93,838
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1134.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 5% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -312.77%
• Current HPI: 254.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $140,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Coming Soon $150,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid