7806 Wilmot Rd · Erie, IL 61250

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1983 Poor condition 11 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 2 story home on 11.24 acres. Home is in need of repairs and is being sold as is. Home is vacant, but no access is being granted. Home is being sold sight unseen.

Key facts

• 11.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#300 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Erie CUSD 1 (rural): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #167 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Whiteside County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whiteside County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.49%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,424
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7806 Wilmot Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,664 (0%)	1mo	$152,250	$91	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $18,290
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $54,113
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61250

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $489	+0% $465	+5% $441	+10% $416
Rent	-10% $370	-5% $417	+0% $465	+5% $512	+10% $560
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $483	base $465	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $428

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $69,900
3. 2026-04-23
   price $55,000
4. 2026-04-21
   listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $4,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,139
• After-tax cash flow: $4,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof replacement, exterior siding repair/painting, flooring replacement, HVAC system replacement, and landscaping. Significant improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major flooring — Worn and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — Peeling and potential water damage.
• Major HVAC system — Old and in need of replacement.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Fixes the most critical issue and improves both resale and rental value.
• Both exterior siding repair/painting — Enhances curb appeal and increases property value.
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living conditions and increases property value.
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, increasing property value.
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and increases property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Peeling and potential water damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Old and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Fixes the most critical issue and improves both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair/painting — Enhances curb appeal and increases property value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living conditions and increases property value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, increasing property value. ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — Enhances curb appeal and increases property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1714350
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $57,258
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5752
• State rank: #167 of 620 in IL

Livability — Erie

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #5810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,843

Population outlook (Whiteside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,736 people
• By 2030: 51,657 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 47,169 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 42,613 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 32,691 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 22,638 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% English 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Whiteside

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 41.7% · R 56.4% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+6.3 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.73%
• Current HPI: 149.049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid