1323 Mackinaw St · Saginaw, MI 48602

$40,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1891 7,841 sqft lot ↓ 47% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity for a great investment with a ton of space/waiting for you to put your vision to work. This home has great potential, charm and character, a wraparound porch, and accessible ramp off back porch. Great for extra income or a primary home, 2 car garage. Some work is required.

Key facts

• Accessible ramp
• Wraparound porch
• 7,841 sq ft lot

Tags

• WRAPAROUND PORCH
• ACCESSIBLE RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.3% vs local median 8.3% in Saginaw — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Saginaw School District (urban): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #444 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $40k implies a 142% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1891 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1891 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.04%
• DSCR: 4.34
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1403 Cypress St	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,603 (-4%)	2mo	$63,000	$39	75
1907 Adams Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (-1%)	3mo	$130,000	$79	71
407 S Oakley St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,495 (-10%)	4mo	$58,000	$39	69
1032 Sutton St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,660 (-0%)	3mo	$125,000	$75	64
203 N Webster St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (-4%)	4mo	$115,000	$72	59
613 Williams St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,526 (-9%)	2mo	$40,000	$26	58
267 Lockwood St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,553 (-7%)	2mo	$116,000	$75	57
2403 Stobbe St	0.58mi	4/1.5	1,510 (-10%)	6mo	$90,000	$60	50
1407 Bay St	0.59mi	4/1.5	1,464 (-12%)	2mo	$142,900	$98	48
735 Malzahn St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,550 (-7%)	4mo	$95,500	$62	47
412 N Oakley St	0.54mi	4/1.0	1,905 (+14%)	6mo	$36,000	$19	46
266 Lockwood St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-14%)	3mo	$150,000	$104	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $39,376
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.66×
• Total profit: $96,957
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48602

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   historical
3. 2025-04-16
   status Pending 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Opportunity for a great investment with a ton of space/waiting for you to put your vision to work. This home has great potential, charm and character, a wraparound porch, and accessible ramp off back porch. Great for extra income or a primary home, 2 car garage. Some work is required.

4. 2025-04-16
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Opportunity for a great investment with a ton of space/waiting for you to put your vision to work. This home has great potential, charm and character, a wraparound porch, and accessible ramp off back porch. Great for extra income or a primary home, 2 car garage. Some work is required.

5. 2025-03-10
   listed $40,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Opportunity for a great investment with a ton of space/waiting for you to put your vision to work. This home has great potential, charm and character, a wraparound porch, and accessible ramp off back porch. Great for extra income or a primary home, 2 car garage. Some work is required.

6. 2025-03-10
   listed $40,000 Active 285-char remark

   Show marketing remark (285 chars)

   Opportunity for a great investment with a ton of space/waiting for you to put your vision to work. This home has great potential, charm and character, a wraparound porch, and accessible ramp off back porch. Great for extra income or a primary home, 2 car garage. Some work is required.

7. 2023-11-28
   historical
8. 2023-11-28
   historical
9. 2023-11-14
   listed $40,000 Active
10. 2023-11-14
    listed $40,000 Active
11. 2008-01-21
    soldstatus $16,500
12. 2008-01-21
    soldstatus $16,500
13. 2008-01-15
    historical
14. 2008-01-09
    listed $19,500
15. 2008-01-09
    listed $19,500
16. 2007-11-23
    historical
17. 2007-11-23
    historical
18. 2007-09-14
    listed $31,500
19. 2007-09-14
    listed $31,500
20. 2007-08-30
    historical
21. 2007-08-30
    historical
22. 2007-05-30
    listed $54,000
23. 2007-05-30
    listed $54,000
24. 2005-12-05
    historical
25. 2005-12-05
    historical
26. 2005-09-10
    listed $74,900
27. 2005-09-10
    listed $74,900
28. 2003-03-04
    soldstatus $74,900
29. 2003-01-07
    historical
30. 2003-01-06
    soldstatus $74,900
31. 2003-01-06
    soldstatus $74,900
32. 2002-06-18
    listed $74,900
33. 2002-06-18
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,259
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,982
• After-tax cash flow: $6,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saginaw School District
• NCES district ID: 2630390
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,940
• Composite: 19.6/100
• National rank: #8755
• State rank: #444 of 540 in MI

Livability — Saginaw

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #15424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saginaw, MI
• County: Saginaw County · 54,884 people
• City population: 54,884
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,127
• Household income: $46,984
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1416.0

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.15%
• Current HPI: 159.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Saginaw, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-46.6% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-04-16 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-16 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-03-10 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-03-10 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-28 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-11-14 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-14 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-01-21 Sold (MLS) $16,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-21 Sold (MLS) $16,500 REALCOMP
• 2008-01-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-09 Listed $19,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-01-09 Listed $19,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-11-23 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-11-23 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-09-14 Listed $31,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-09-14 Listed $31,500 REALCOMP
• 2007-08-30 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2007-08-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2007-05-30 Listed $54,000 REALCOMP
• 2007-05-30 Listed $54,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-05 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-05 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2005-09-10 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-09-10 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 2003-01-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-01-06 Sold (MLS) $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-01-06 Sold (MLS) $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-06-18 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-06-18 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,203 · -23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.