8 Williams St · Falconer, NY 14733

$49,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1912 8,580 sqft lot $25/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home! Located in the village of Falconer, this house comes with an old school charm. The exterior is brick with a tiled front porch, and entrance way. Please note that the damage to interior was done before the new aluminum roof was put on. This house has many beautiful wooden features with built in storage in almost every room! Natural wood floors in every room. A total of 3 gas fireplaces, two being downstairs and one upstairs; will keep you nice and warm! Downstairs has a living room, bonus room, kitchen, dining room, and two different points of entry. The basement is very large and features three rooms. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms, one bathroom, lots of built in storage and an addition to be made into what the heart desires! The attic provides ample storage place or room for another bedroom/studio. This house has so much charm and needs someone with a vision to finish making it into a dream home. Features: New grounded electric to replace knob and tube wiring (needs finished) New gas furnace in working order! New plumbing, hot water tank, expansion tank, copper and pex New aluminum roof New meters Large yard and side porch Easement for shared parking space in the back of the yard Shed

Key facts

• Built in storage
• Natural wood floors
• Brick exterior

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• TILED FRONT PORCH
• BUILT IN STORAGE
• NATURAL WOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACES
• LARGE BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#391 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Falconer Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #423 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $46,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.81%
• DSCR: 3.53
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,330
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -68.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74 E Everett St	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,032 (+2%)	4mo	$187,500	$92	74
410 W Main St	0.57mi	5/2.0	1,928 (-4%)	21mo	$162,000	$84	50
109 N Dow St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,872 (-6%)	12mo	$107,500	$57	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $46,850
• Equity at exit: $21,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.83×
• Total profit: $109,435
• Equity at exit: $31,394

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14733

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    listed $49,900 Active 1237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1237 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home! Located in the village of Falconer, this house comes with an old school charm. The exterior is brick with a tiled front porch, and entrance way. Please note that the damage to interior was done before the new aluminum roof was put on. This house has many beautiful wooden features with built in storage in almost every room! Natural wood floors in every room. A total of 3 gas fireplaces, two being downstairs and one upstairs; will keep you nice and warm! Downstairs has a living room, bonus room, kitchen, dining room, and two different points of entry. The basement is very large and features three rooms. Upstairs has 3 bedrooms, one bathroom, lots of built in storage and an addition to be made into what the heart desires! The attic provides ample storage place or room for another bedroom/studio. This house has so much charm and needs someone with a vision to finish making it into a dream home. Features: New grounded electric to replace knob and tube wiring (needs finished) New gas furnace in working order! New plumbing, hot water tank, expansion tank, copper and pex New aluminum roof New meters Large yard and side porch Easement for shared parking space in the back of the yard Shed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $7,595
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $6,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Falconer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610920
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $44,363
• Composite: 40.96/100
• National rank: #3600
• State rank: #423 of 590 in NY

Livability — Falconer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #391
• US rank: #6759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falconer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,201

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 271.5037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,051 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.