22017 Lakeview Dr · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1995 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTENTION! YOU MUST SEE THIS 1500 SQ FT HOMES OF MERIT. A BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED LAWN WITH LOTS OF PLANTS. CEILING FANS IN ALL BEDROOMS AND LIVING ROOM. A 9X16 SCREENED IN BACK PORCH AND A COVERED FRONT DECK. OWNER

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1249 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $170k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.72%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,109
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $51,197
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1249
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,341/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
76 Gulf View Dr Unit 1514902P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$2,257	$1.44	13d	1	0.63mi
22942 Ann Miller Rd #111 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1540	$2,600	$1.69	21d	1	0.81mi
22940 Ann Miller Rd #110 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.81mi
21101 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,956	$1.95	13d	12	0.93mi
24200 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,200	$2.87	13d	170	1.11mi
100 Downing St #13 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,950	$1.43	21d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,341 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,341
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $6,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $7,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+139.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $170,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2005-05-27 Listed $249,900 CPARMLS
• 1997-10-21 Sold (MLS) $68,000 CPARMLS
• 1997-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-17 Listed $72,500 CPARMLS
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,341 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.