406 Summerfest Dr · Carencro, LA 70507

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,657 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2007 10,018 sqft lot Est $217k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Move in Ready! Home features an open floor plan with 10' ceilings in living room, kitchen, dining and master bedroom. Flooring consists of ceramic tile and new carpeting. Home is energy Efficient.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($552/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.4% in Carencro — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#65 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Lafayette Parish (urban): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #19 of 98 in LA (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Live Oak Elementary School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #402 of 646 statewide, top 63%, 602 students, 82% FRL); Carencro Middle School (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #145 of 218 statewide, top 69%, 665 students, 75% FRL); Carencro High School (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #127 of 265 statewide, top 49%, 1,096 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lafayette Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 330 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,585 units permitted in Lafayette Parish in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $177k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,963 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,067
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Summerfest Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+2%)	1mo	$225,000	$133	96
404 Summerfest Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,739 (+5%)	7mo	$211,500	$122	85
302 Summerfest Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+7%)	7mo	$225,000	$127	80
501 Walter Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+6%)	5mo	$225,000	$129	74
408 Breaux Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-10%)	6mo	$209,000	$139	70
211 Saddle Crest Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-8%)	0mo	$215,500	$142	68
102 Whirlaway Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,775 (+7%)	2mo	$255,000	$144	66
704 Breaux Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-12%)	2mo	$190,000	$130	66
201 Pavilion St	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-15%)	7mo	$185,000	$131	65
421 Walter Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+9%)	7mo	$230,000	$128	57
106 Tison Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,709 (+3%)	4mo	$132,000	$77	54
134 Kentwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,873 (+13%)	8mo	$255,000	$136	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,576
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,658
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70507

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,768/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,811

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $110	+0% $46	+5% $-18	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-28	+0% $46	+5% $120	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $103	base $46	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 Springsteen Ln Lafayette, LA	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,100	$1.05	15d	1	0.84mi
417 Elwick Dr Lafayette, LA	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,650	$1.13	23d	1	1.32mi
219 Oak Path Dr Carencro, LA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,900	$1.18	45d	1	1.33mi
115 Northpointe Dr Carencro, LA	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,650	$0.97	45d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2017-11-29
   soldstatus $176,900 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Move in Ready! Home features an open floor plan with 10' ceilings in living room, kitchen, dining and master bedroom. Flooring consists of ceramic tile and new carpeting. Home is energy Efficient.

4. 2017-10-13
   listed $189,500 236-char remark

   Show marketing remark (236 chars)

   This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Move in Ready! Home features an open floor plan with 10' ceilings in living room, kitchen, dining and master bedroom. Flooring consists of ceramic tile and new carpeting. Home is energy Efficient.

5. 2007-09-24
   soldstatus
6. 2007-09-14
   soldstatus $195,000 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   New development in the Carencro Area off of Gloria Switch. New construction with open floor plan 10ft ceilings inthe living room, kitchen, dining room & master bedroom. Ceramic tile: kitchen countertops. Ceramic tile flooring in the kitchen, dining room, utility room baths and foyer. Energy efficient home lot dimensions 48.09x136x88.39x144.68

7. 2007-05-14
   listed $189,900 348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (348 chars)

   New development in the Carencro Area off of Gloria Switch. New construction with open floor plan 10ft ceilings inthe living room, kitchen, dining room & master bedroom. Ceramic tile: kitchen countertops. Ceramic tile flooring in the kitchen, dining room, utility room baths and foyer. Energy efficient home lot dimensions 48.09x136x88.39x144.68

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,768
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $1,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200870
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $50,238
• Composite: 36.15/100
• National rank: #4741
• State rank: #19 of 98 in LA

Livability — Carencro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #8277

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carencro, LA
• County: Lafayette Parish · 207,544 people
• City population: 20,134
• Metro: Lafayette, LA
• Population (ZIP): 20,096
• Household income: $64,049
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 503.0

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 280,930 people
• By 2030: 301,092 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 339,456 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 375,156 · +33.5%
• By 2075: 451,672 · +60.8%
• By 2100: 497,203 · +77.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 45% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.1pp no change · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+33.6 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.84%
• Current HPI: 156.889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lafayette, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+18.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $225,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-11-29 Sold (MLS) $176,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-10-13 Listed $189,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-09-14 Sold (MLS) $195,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2007-05-14 Listed $189,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,768 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.