14 Shellie St · North Lebanon, PA 17046

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 686 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 2018

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean and pristine. A very well maintained like-new manufactured home in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Built in 2018, this unit has been carefully owned and lightly treaded. Affordable lot rent of only $330/month (additional $25/month for a pet). There are two off-street parking spaces for this property. All appliances are in good shape and stay with the home. This unit is particularly nice because there is no neighbor to the rear, creating a private back yard area that is abutted to trees and open space. The park previously had a 55+ plus age restriction that is no longer a requirement. Inventory is extremely low, and finding a property with this age, condition, and low price, is an extremely rare combination. Seize your moment!

Key facts

• New washer and dryer
• Small shed installed
• Brand new furnace

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING SPACES
• PRIVATE BACK YARD AREA
• BRAND NEW FURNACE
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER
• SMALL SHED INSTALLED
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cornwall-Lebanon SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #219 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Lebanon County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lebanon County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.79%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,928
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 David Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	624 (-9%)	24mo	$30,000	$48	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $23,213
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $83,016
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17046

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $667

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
523 Walnut St Unit 5 Lebanon, PA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,000	$1.82	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   price $70,000
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $75,000 Active
4. 2024-03-21
   soldstatus $55,000 Closed 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Clean and pristine. A very well maintained like-new manufactured home in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Built in 2018, this unit has been carefully owned and lightly treaded. Affordable lot rent of only $330/month (additional $25/month for a pet). There are two off-street parking spaces for this property. All appliances are in good shape and stay with the home. This unit is particularly nice because there is no neighbor to the rear, creating a private back yard area that is abutted to trees and open space. The park previously had a 55+ plus age restriction that is no longer a requirement. Inventory is extremely low, and finding a property with this age, condition, and low price, is an extremely rare combination. Seize your moment!

5. 2024-01-25
   status Pending 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Clean and pristine. A very well maintained like-new manufactured home in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Built in 2018, this unit has been carefully owned and lightly treaded. Affordable lot rent of only $330/month (additional $25/month for a pet). There are two off-street parking spaces for this property. All appliances are in good shape and stay with the home. This unit is particularly nice because there is no neighbor to the rear, creating a private back yard area that is abutted to trees and open space. The park previously had a 55+ plus age restriction that is no longer a requirement. Inventory is extremely low, and finding a property with this age, condition, and low price, is an extremely rare combination. Seize your moment!

6. 2024-01-18
   listed $55,000 Active 743-char remark

   Show marketing remark (743 chars)

   Clean and pristine. A very well maintained like-new manufactured home in Lincoln Village Mobile Home Park. Built in 2018, this unit has been carefully owned and lightly treaded. Affordable lot rent of only $330/month (additional $25/month for a pet). There are two off-street parking spaces for this property. All appliances are in good shape and stay with the home. This unit is particularly nice because there is no neighbor to the rear, creating a private back yard area that is abutted to trees and open space. The park previously had a 55+ plus age restriction that is no longer a requirement. Inventory is extremely low, and finding a property with this age, condition, and low price, is an extremely rare combination. Seize your moment!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $936 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$1,148
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,624
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $4,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall-Lebanon SD
• NCES district ID: 4206840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $62,483
• Composite: 41.0/100
• National rank: #3589
• State rank: #219 of 539 in PA

Livability — North Lebanon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lebanon County · 95,836 people
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,835
• Household income: $62,221
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 905.0

Population outlook (Lebanon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,806 people
• By 2030: 147,534 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 152,952 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 159,406 · +10.1%
• By 2075: 181,736 · +25.5%
• By 2100: 198,402 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 20% Dominican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Lebanon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.6% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.36%
• Current HPI: 217.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.36%
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+27.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-21 Sold (MLS) $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-01-18 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $767 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.