102 Circle Dr · Sumrall, MS 39482

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,158 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1969

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice and affordable home sitting on a 1 acre country lot in Sumrall! Perfect for first time home buyers or investors!! This 3 BR-1 Bath home features a spacious open yard with plenty of room for the kids to play overlooking neighboring pasture and crop land, large laundry room, dining area, recently updated paint throughout including kitchen cabinets, laminate and ceramic floors in kitchen and living area, and much more! Sumrall Schools and a must see at a great price!!

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Great location
• Parking

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• GREAT LOCATION
• NEWER FLOORING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached carport/driveway access; 1 carport space
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Brick veneer exterior
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in electric oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in Sumrall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in MS, #2,313 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sumrall Elementary School (math 71% / reading 60%, grade B+, #15 of 375 statewide, top 4%, 903 students, 100% FRL); Sumrall Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #32 of 179 statewide, top 17%, 464 students, 99% FRL); Sumrall High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #14 of 197 statewide, top 8%, 603 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (57 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,772 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,764
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,234
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39482

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $509/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,451

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $345	-5% $290	+0% $234	+5% $179	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $96	-5% $165	+0% $234	+5% $303	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $284	base $234	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 D Jones Rd Sumrall, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	45d	1	0.79mi
60 Newman Camp Rd Sumrall, MS	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	22d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 322-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,032/yr (+$86/mo · 202.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,973
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$509
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$111
• After-tax cash flow: $2,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802400
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,742
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3645
• State rank: #18 of 130 in MS

Livability — Sumrall

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,966

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,826 people
• By 2030: 77,309 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 87,733 · +22.1%
• By 2050: 97,289 · +35.5%
• By 2075: 115,347 · +60.6%
• By 2100: 125,601 · +74.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.8) · D 25.0% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: -55.8pp · 2024: -48.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.8 2020: R+46.9 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+55.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.94%
• Current HPI: 170.879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+88.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $195,000 HAAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2020-02-11 Listed $103,500 HAAR

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $509 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.