944 Tuberose Trl · Redding, CA 96003

$154,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,521 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2002 $102/sqft · 64% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home in Los Robles Estates. The home features: 2 bedrooms + office/3rd bedroom, 2 baths and approx 1521 square feet. Large kitchen which is open to the living room and dining area. Other features include: indoor laundry, large covered parking area, covered patio, storage shed and so much more.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Covered patio
• Storage shed

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $155k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.96%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,273
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: 64.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4719 Maple Trl	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,520 (-0%)	3mo	$181,500	$119	85
899 Tuberose Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	5mo	$99,180	$64	80
4532 Hardwood Blvd #195	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+5%)	3mo	$76,000	$48	72
470 Brushwood Dr #139	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,632 (+7%)	6mo	$98,000	$60	68
4649 Underwood Dr #257	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+1%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	67
4555 Underwood Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	1mo	$99,000	$69	67
1350 Aztec Path #229	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-4%)	6mo	$95,000	$65	66
301 Sapwood Dr #280	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	4mo	$65,900	$46	66
323 Sapwood Dr Sp# 279 Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-5%)	4mo	$89,000	$62	66
458 Balsawood Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	63
4726 Maple Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+13%)	7mo	$148,000	$86	61
1401 Menomenee Ln #281	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+10%)	5mo	$71,000	$42	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,006
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $51,325
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $377	+0% $324	+5% $270	+10% $217
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $254	+0% $324	+5% $394	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $363	base $324	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	14d	1	0.23mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.29mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	45d	1	0.62mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,295	$1.31	14d	8	0.71mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	45d	1	1.21mi
6053 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.30mi
6073 Fallworth Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1622	$2,650	$1.63	14d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $154,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $154,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    listed $164,900 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Great home in Los Robles Estates. The home features: 2 bedrooms + office/3rd bedroom, 2 baths and approx 1521 square feet. Large kitchen which is open to the living room and dining area. Other features include: indoor laundry, large covered parking area, covered patio, storage shed and so much more.

19. 2015-06-05
    soldstatus $76,000 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This 2 bed/2 bath plus Den will make you never want to leave. Beautiful open floor plan, cathedral ceilings, spacious dining room and of course a large kitchen to satisfy everyone. Both bedrooms have walk in closets. Indoor laundry. Step out back door to your entertainers delight patio area. Located in a senior park just minutes from shopping & transportation.

20. 2015-02-17
    listed $79,500 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    This 2 bed/2 bath plus Den will make you never want to leave. Beautiful open floor plan, cathedral ceilings, spacious dining room and of course a large kitchen to satisfy everyone. Both bedrooms have walk in closets. Indoor laundry. Step out back door to your entertainers delight patio area. Located in a senior park just minutes from shopping & transportation.

21. 2014-10-06
    listed $85,500
22. 2014-09-01
    listed $85,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,181
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $1,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $3,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+92.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $164,900 SAOR
• 2015-06-05 Sold (MLS) $76,000 SAOR
• 2015-02-17 Listed $79,500 SAOR
• 2014-10-06 Listed $85,500 SAOR
• 2014-09-01 Listed $85,500 SAOR

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2020): $260 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.