21 Newbury Row · Leisure Knoll, NJ 08759

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 967 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 369 Days on market

Built 1979 6,098 sqft lot $258/sqft · 13% below area Est $288k · 13% under $232/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Walden Model in Adult Gated Community Leisure Knoll. Well Kept, Freshly Painted. New Deck. 2BR. 2BA. Florida Room. Central Air. Washer. Dryer. Auto Garage Door Opener.

Key facts

• Florida room
• New deck
• Central air

Tags

• NEW DECK
• FLORIDA ROOM
• CENTRAL AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.1% in Leisure Knoll — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 369 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11007% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $134k; list at $250k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,047
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -13.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Woodstock Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	967 (0%)	1mo	$260,000	$269	90
60 Westgate Pl	0.14mi	2/1.0	967 (0%)	2mo	$290,000	$300	88
26 Maidstone Way	0.33mi	2/2.0	967 (0%)	0mo	$270,000	$279	84
35 Hastings Rd	0.34mi	2/2.0	967 (0%)	2mo	$305,000	$315	83
21 Harrogate Ln	0.38mi	2/2.0	967 (0%)	5mo	$235,000	$243	78
9 Buckingham Dr N	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,009 (+4%)	6mo	$310,000	$307	65
83 Buckingham Dr N	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+14%)	8mo	$300,000	$273	63
6D Gramercy Ln	0.53mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+9%)	2mo	$275,000	$262	57
61 Cambridge Cir Unit B	0.68mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+9%)	5mo	$249,000	$237	48
22B Buckingham Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,065 (+10%)	5mo	$205,000	$192	48
59B Cambridge Cir	0.67mi	2/1.0	861 (-11%)	3mo	$218,000	$253	44
44B Buckingham Dr	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+9%)	8mo	$175,000	$167	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,526
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,854
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,291/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$232
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,432

Max offer price $232,742

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-26	+0% $-97	+5% $-168	+10% $-239
Rent	-10% $-280	-5% $-188	+0% $-97	+5% $-6	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-34	base $-97	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	44d	1	0.18mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	44d	1	1.06mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	0d	6	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $232 · $2,784/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 369 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 363 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $249,900 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Walden Model in Adult Gated Community Leisure Knoll. Well Kept, Freshly Painted. New Deck. 2BR. 2BA. Florida Room. Central Air. Washer. Dryer. Auto Garage Door Opener.

16. 2026-03-29
    listed $2,250
17. 2025-12-08
    price $279,900 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Walden Model in Adult Gated Community Leisure Knoll. Well Kept, Freshly Painted. New Deck. 2BR. 2BA. Florida Room. Central Air. Washer. Dryer. Auto Garage Door Opener.

18. 2025-10-22
    price $299,000 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Walden Model in Adult Gated Community Leisure Knoll. Well Kept, Freshly Painted. New Deck. 2BR. 2BA. Florida Room. Central Air. Washer. Dryer. Auto Garage Door Opener.

19. 2025-09-09
    historical $2,000
20. 2025-08-14
    listed $2,000
21. 2025-08-02
    historical $2,000
22. 2025-06-18
    listed $2,000
23. 2025-06-16
    listed $329,000 Active 167-char remark

    Show marketing remark (167 chars)

    Walden Model in Adult Gated Community Leisure Knoll. Well Kept, Freshly Painted. New Deck. 2BR. 2BA. Florida Room. Central Air. Washer. Dryer. Auto Garage Door Opener.

24. 2003-04-14
    soldstatus $134,100
25. 1992-09-28
    soldstatus $68,000
26. 1986-06-13
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,291 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,757 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,466/yr (+$122/mo · 44.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,291
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − HOA: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$5,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,277
• After-tax cash flow: $112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Knoll

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #11285

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Knoll, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+201.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $249,900 MOMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed for Rent $2,250 MOMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $279,900 MOMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $299,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-09 Rental Removed $2,000 MOMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed for Rent $2,000 MOMLS
• 2025-08-02 Rental Removed $2,000 MOMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed for Rent $2,000 MOMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listed $329,000 MOMLS
• 2003-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $134,100 Public Records
• 1992-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1986-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,291 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.