8147 Copper Meadows Ln · Houston, TX 77433

$295,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,050 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What's Special: White Cabinets | Flat Lot | Close to Park | Close to Amenity. New Construction, September Completion! Built by Taylor Morrison, America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Austin at 8147 Copper Meadows Lane in Mason Woods. This single-story home offers open living and comfort. The spacious great room flows into the kitchen and dining area. A covered patio extends the living outdoors. The private primary suite features a walk-in closet and well-designed bath, while two bedrooms and a two-car garage add flexibility and convenience. Mason Woods offers easy access to major employers and top shopping and dining, with quick routes to the Grand Parkway, I-10, and US 290 for

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• 5,050 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR EMPLOYERS
• QUICK ROUTES TO GRAND PARKWAY
• ZONED TO EXCELLENT CY-FAIR ISD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by Crest Management; Annual association fee (covers common areas); Community amenities include fitness center, playground, and trails; Curbs in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Faces southwest; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fully fenced yard; Sprinkler/irrigation; Pond on lot; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Pantry; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — approx. 13x12; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10x9; Bedroom (first floor) — approx. 10x9
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Granite counters; Pantry; Tub with shower; Programmable thermostat; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $295,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $308,464.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Postma El (math 45% / reading 59%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 1,247 students, 45% FRL); Rowe Middle (math 26% / reading 44%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 1,310 students, 80% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,854 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,464
• List price: $295,990
• Delta: -4.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8303 Blue Shell Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,377 (+1%)	4mo	$297,990	$216	83
21715 Coral Mist Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,391 (+2%)	3mo	$313,990	$226	82
21831 Yellow Pineapple Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+6%)	2mo	$307,790	$213	80
8086 Magnolia Prairie Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,443 (+6%)	2mo	$311,438	$216	80
8123 Kay Harbor Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	2mo	$310,990	$203	69
21810 Black Tulip Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+9%)	4mo	$311,755	$209	68
21819 Coral Mist Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+14%)	4mo	$311,690	$200	67
8082 Magnolia Prairie Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+14%)	2mo	$299,890	$193	66
7955 Fijian Cypress Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,396 (+2%)	2mo	$269,875	$193	64
8334 Blue Shell Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+12%)	2mo	$316,990	$207	63
8431 Manta Ray Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,497 (+10%)	2mo	$310,000	$207	60
21815 White Bellflower Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+8%)	1mo	$275,000	$186	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-74,173
• Equity at exit: $45,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-114,002
• Equity at exit: $26,670

Cash invested: $86,370 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,618
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,627/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,788

Max offer price $269,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-162	+0% $-268	+5% $-375	+10% $-482
Rent	-10% $-462	-5% $-365	+0% $-268	+5% $-172	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-190	base $-268	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,116
• Closing costs: $9,254
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7911 Tuscan Cypress Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	3.0	1730	$2,475	$1.43	46d	1	0.67mi
7558 Magnolia Orchid Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1743	$2,390	$1.37	46d	1	0.74mi
22025 Avalon Landing Ln Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,663	$2.79	1d	12	0.85mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	15d	21	1.12mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	46d	1	1.17mi
21815 Sunshine Cove Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,650	$1.49	46d	1	1.17mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	46d	1	1.20mi
21447 FM 529 Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,205	$2.21	1d	28	1.34mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,450	$1.37	1d	41	1.45mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	46d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $295,990 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $295,990 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,990 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-05-11
   listed $295,990 Active 955-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,279
• − Property taxes: −$4,627
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$8,973
• Taxable loss: −$8,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious layout, modern finishes, and a well-maintained exterior. Upgrades to the exterior and interior can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $295,990 HARMLS