15236 Arleen Normand Dr · Covington, LA 70435

$290,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,183 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2005 1.13 ac lot $133/sqft · at area comps Est $295k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath brick home on over an acre with a flexible split floor plan! A bonus room offers options for a 5th bedroom, game room, or media space. The primary bath offers a jetted walk-in tub along with a separate shower. The home features an attached 2-car garage and comes equipped with a whole-house generator plus a 500-gallon propane tank. Flood Zone C. This property gives you space, versatility, and comfort all in one!

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Brick home
• Jetted walk-in tub

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• FLEXIBLE SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• BONUS ROOM
• JETTED WALK-IN TUB
• WHOLE-HOUSE GENERATOR
• 500-GALLON PROPANE TANK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two parking spaces; Has garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Generator (electric)
• Home design: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Average condition; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Concrete patio/porch; Outside city limits; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 163 x 305; Lot area approximately 1.13 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Has cooling and heating
• Interior features: Attic with pull-down stairs; Pantry; Accessibility features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($185/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Covington Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #108 of 646 statewide, top 18%, 628 students, 59% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 635 students, 62% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $189k; list at $290k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,421 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,044
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -1.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15239 Arleen Normand Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,092 (-4%)	2mo	$335,000	$160	82
76242 Cameo Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,042 (-6%)	18mo	$115,000	$56	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-46,118
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-39,331
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,580/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,245

Max offer price $290,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $98	+0% $15	+5% $-67	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-74	+0% $15	+5% $105	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $161	-0.5pp $89	base $15	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
724 Simpson Way Covington, LA	3.0	3.5	2262	$2,149	$0.95	5d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $290,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    status Active
16. 2026-05-06
    status Active
17. 2026-04-26
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-26
    status Pending
19. 2026-03-05
    price $290,000
20. 2026-03-05
    price $290,000
21. 2026-01-02
    listed $298,000 Active
22. 2026-01-02
    listed $298,000 Active
23. 2025-07-15
    price $325,000
24. 2025-07-15
    price $325,000
25. 2025-06-14
    listed $330,000 Active
26. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $188,700
27. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus $188,700
28. 2004-09-09
    soldstatus $25,000
29. 2004-08-25
    listed $188,700
30. 2004-08-25
    listed $188,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,595 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$15/yr (+$1/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$1,580
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$4,888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,173
• After-tax cash flow: $1,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+53.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Pending — GSREIN
• 2026-05-26 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-26 Contingent — GSREIN
• 2026-05-18 Listed $290,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $290,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — GBRMLS
• 2026-04-26 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-26 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $290,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $290,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $298,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $298,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $325,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $325,000 GSREIN
• 2025-06-14 Listed $330,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2005-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $188,700 Public Records
• 2005-04-01 Sold (MLS) $188,700 GSREIN
• 2004-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-25 Listed $188,700 AcadianaMLS
• 2004-08-25 Listed $188,700 GSREIN

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,580 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.