465 Tomlin Station Rd · Mullica Hill, NJ 08062

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 339 Days on market

Built 1965 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful lot, 1.01 Acres in prestigious Mullica Hill. Trailer on lot, being sold "AS IS", lot includes a pond, sheds, plus 2-bedroom trailer. Value is in the land! Well and Septic on site. " as is" Beautiful scenic property. Seller says sell! Moving West!

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Pond
• 1.01 acres

Tags

• 1.01 ACRES
• POND
• SHEDS
• WELL AND SEPTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Paved parking with crushed stone and gravel areas
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic; Natural gas available (hot water and heating fuel); Electric available; Cable TV available; Cable internet service; Multiple phone lines; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Mobile home (pre-1976); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Pilings foundation; Other foundation types; Casement, insulated windows with screens; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Enclosed porch; Porch(es); Wire fencing; Front, rear and side yards; Interior lot; Has water view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminated flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window cooling units; 100 amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Combination dining and living area; Eat-in kitchen with table space; Ceiling fan(s); Tub/shower; Six-panel and storm doors; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup with dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 2.7% in Mullica Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#211 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Kingsway Regional School District (rural): math 29% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #175 of 472 in NJ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.39%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $38,402
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $108,184
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08062

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,168

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $975	-5% $941	+0% $907	+5% $873	+10% $839
Rent	-10% $724	-5% $815	+0% $907	+5% $998	+10% $1,090
Rate	-1.0pp $967	-0.5pp $937	base $907	+0.5pp $876	+1.0pp $844

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 339 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 336 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 335 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 334 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 333 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 331 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 323 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 322 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 321 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 320 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 319 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 318 DOM
18. 2026-01-23
    price $120,000
19. 2025-07-17
    listed $150,000 Active
20. 2001-08-14
    soldstatus $565,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,925 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,956 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: +$32/yr (+$3/mo · 1.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,224
• − Management: −$2,224
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $9,610
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,306
• After-tax cash flow: $8,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingsway Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3407980
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $108,204
• Composite: 41.2/100
• National rank: #3543
• State rank: #175 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Mullica Hill

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #211
• US rank: #5942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,969
• Population (ZIP): 17,969

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 298,895 people
• By 2030: 299,031 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 294,020 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 284,188 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 260,720 · -12.8%
• By 2100: 229,565 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+1.9 2016: R+0.4 2012: D+10.5 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.12%
• Current HPI: 300.2469
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-78.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $565,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,925 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.