133 Oak Ridge Cir · Madison, MS 39110

$309,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1988 0.56 ac lot Est $390k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful 4 bedroom and 3 bath home located on a large wooded corner lot in Oak Ridge Estates. This home features a foyer, formal dining, living room with built in bookshelves, spacious kitchen with new quartz counter tops and plenty of cabinets, split floor plan with two master suites, plus a large backyard! Great home in the Madison County School district. Call to schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Move in ready
• Corner lot
• Circular driveway

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• MOVE IN READY
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.56 acre
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Security: Security information not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One level
• Construction: Vinyl construction; Slab foundation; Built year information from public records
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Flooring information not provided
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Fireplace insert; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $283,535 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,260
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 N Old Canton Rd	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,561 (+4%)	9mo	$453,000	$177	69
123 Oak Ridge Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0	2,209 (-11%)	13mo	$350,000	$158	60
26 Beauvoir Pl	0.75mi	3/2.5	2,629 (+6%)	20mo	$399,900	$152	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-28,628
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-540
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,529/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,382

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 Republic St Madison, MS	3.0	3.0	2800	$8,000	$2.86	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $309,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $315,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   status $315,000 Pending 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $315,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $315,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $315,000 Active
14. 2026-04-26
    historical
15. 2025-12-05
    price $309,000
16. 2025-11-25
    price $314,500
17. 2025-11-13
    price $319,500
18. 2025-10-26
    listed $325,000 Active
19. 2021-10-11
    soldstatus
20. 2021-10-08
    soldstatus 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Wonderful 4 bedroom and 3 bath home located on a large wooded corner lot in Oak Ridge Estates. This home features a foyer, formal dining, living room with built in bookshelves, spacious kitchen with new quartz counter tops and plenty of cabinets, split floor plan with two master suites, plus a large backyard! Great home in the Madison County School district. Call to schedule your showing today!

21. 2021-07-15
    listed $285,000 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Wonderful 4 bedroom and 3 bath home located on a large wooded corner lot in Oak Ridge Estates. This home features a foyer, formal dining, living room with built in bookshelves, spacious kitchen with new quartz counter tops and plenty of cabinets, split floor plan with two master suites, plus a large backyard! Great home in the Madison County School district. Call to schedule your showing today!

22. 1992-05-11
    soldstatus
23. 1988-06-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,448 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$919/yr (+$77/mo · 60.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$1,529
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,722
• − Management: −$2,722
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$210
• After-tax cash flow: $4,508/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+10.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $315,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-26 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $309,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $314,500 MLSU
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $319,500 MLSU
• 2025-10-26 Listed $325,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-08 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-07-15 Listed $285,000 MLSU
• 1992-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,529 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.