13187 Churchill Dr · Sterling Heights, MI 48313

$309,800

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1973 7,405 sqft lot $184/sqft · at area comps Est $324k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom family home in Sterling Heights within the Utica School District. This move-in-ready home has been updated from top to bottom, including a new roof (2023), front siding (2023), four upstairs windows (2023), patio/sliding door (2024), storm door (2026), and fully updated bathrooms (2024). The spacious screened-in deck overlooks a large backyard and features fresh paint (2025) and a replaced deck wall (2025). Inside, you’ll find a cozy living room and a warm family room, both with beautiful flooring—perfect for gatherings and everyday living. A long driveway provides ample parking, and the home’s layout offers comfort, functionality, and charm. This is truly a must-see; your dream home is waiting.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story single-family residence; Residential zoning
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Wood-burning fireplace in the family room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Sterling Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in MI, #4,545 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $310k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $238,273 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,643
• List price: $309,800
• Delta: -4.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43428 Hartwick Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,672 (-0%)	2mo	$324,000	$194	92
42768 Buckingham Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,695 (+1%)	2mo	$289,000	$171	71
42944 Pheasant Run Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,875 (+12%)	1mo	$337,000	$180	61
11964 Waiteley Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (-4%)	0mo	$250,000	$155	58
43475 Deborah Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-11%)	0mo	$290,500	$195	58
12107 19 Mile Rd	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	2mo	$260,000	$163	56
11915 Diehl Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+2%)	1mo	$242,000	$141	56
12203 Mair Dr	0.70mi	4/1.5	1,780 (+6%)	1mo	$335,000	$188	55
43461 Gainsley Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-11%)	1mo	$325,000	$218	54
11955 Delvin Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (-8%)	0mo	$285,000	$184	53
11849 Delvin Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (-8%)	1mo	$257,500	$166	50
13468 Mair Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-11%)	2mo	$385,000	$257	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-56,908
• Equity at exit: $46,192

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-56,773
• Equity at exit: $26,786

Cash invested: $86,744 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48313

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,902/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,526

Max offer price $289,812

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-25	+0% $-113	+5% $-201	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-207	+0% $-113	+5% $-19	+10% $75
Rate	-1.0pp $43	-0.5pp $-34	base $-113	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,450
• Closing costs: $9,294
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42682 Park Cresent Dr Sterling Heights, MI	3.0	2.5	2033	$3,000	$1.48	17d	1	0.92mi
44525 Pine Dr Sterling Heights, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,841	$1.86	2d	39	1.11mi
9001 Shannon Dr Sterling Heights, MI	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	19d	1	1.13mi
14323 Mary Grove Dr Sterling Heights, MI	3.0	1.5	1755	$2,500	$1.42	3d	1	1.33mi
14282 Wexford Dr Shelby Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,200	$1.59	44d	1	1.39mi
12942 Montbatten Ct Sterling Heights, MI	3.0	1.5	1612	$2,600	$1.61	18d	1	1.41mi
11699 Weingartz W Utica, MI	3.0	2.5	1761	$2,400	$1.36	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,800 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,800 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,800 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,800 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,800 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,800 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,800 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,800 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,800 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,800 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,800 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,800 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,800 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,800 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $309,800 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom family home in Sterling Heights within the Utica School District. This move-in-ready home has been updated from top to bottom, including a new roof (2023), front siding (2023), four upstairs windows (2023), patio/sliding door (2024), storm door (2026), and fully updated bathrooms (2024). The spacious screened-in deck overlooks a large backyard and features fresh paint (2025) and a replaced deck wall (2025). Inside, you’ll find a cozy living room and a warm family room, both with beautiful flooring—perfect for gatherings and everyday living. A long driveway provides ample parking, and the home’s layout offers comfort, functionality, and charm. This is truly a must-see; your dream home is waiting.

16. 2026-05-14
    listed $309,800 Active 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom family home in Sterling Heights within the Utica School District. This move-in-ready home has been updated from top to bottom, including a new roof (2023), front siding (2023), four upstairs windows (2023), patio/sliding door (2024), storm door (2026), and fully updated bathrooms (2024). The spacious screened-in deck overlooks a large backyard and features fresh paint (2025) and a replaced deck wall (2025). Inside, you’ll find a cozy living room and a warm family room, both with beautiful flooring—perfect for gatherings and everyday living. A long driveway provides ample parking, and the home’s layout offers comfort, functionality, and charm. This is truly a must-see; your dream home is waiting.

17. 2026-05-13
    historical $309,800 768-char remark

    Show marketing remark (768 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom family home in Sterling Heights within the Utica School District. This move-in-ready home has been updated from top to bottom, including a new roof (2023), front siding (2023), four upstairs windows (2023), patio/sliding door (2024), storm door (2026), and fully updated bathrooms (2024). The spacious screened-in deck overlooks a large backyard and features fresh paint (2025) and a replaced deck wall (2025). Inside, you’ll find a cozy living room and a warm family room, both with beautiful flooring—perfect for gatherings and everyday living. A long driveway provides ample parking, and the home’s layout offers comfort, functionality, and charm. This is truly a must-see; your dream home is waiting.

18. 2010-09-10
    soldstatus $115,000
19. 2010-07-23
    soldstatus $115,000

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    New on the Market - Great 4 bedroom family home in teriffic Sterling Heights neighborhood with UTICA schools! Freshly painted and new carpeting in the living room and master suite. Updated kitchen with maple cabinets and appliances included, walk out onto your huge screened in deck overlooking the spacious backyard and swimming pool. Newer roof & windows, maintnence free exterier, this home is a must see! Subject to short sale approval.

20. 2010-06-21
    historical

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    New on the Market - Great 4 bedroom family home in teriffic Sterling Heights neighborhood with UTICA schools! Freshly painted and new carpeting in the living room and master suite. Updated kitchen with maple cabinets and appliances included, walk out onto your huge screened in deck overlooking the spacious backyard and swimming pool. Newer roof & windows, maintnence free exterier, this home is a must see! Subject to short sale approval.

21. 2010-03-17
    listed $125,000

    Show marketing remark (446 chars)

    New on the Market - Great 4 bedroom family home in teriffic Sterling Heights neighborhood with UTICA schools! Freshly painted and new carpeting in the living room and master suite. Updated kitchen with maple cabinets and appliances included, walk out onto your huge screened in deck overlooking the spacious backyard and swimming pool. Newer roof & windows, maintnence free exterier, this home is a must see! Subject to short sale approval.

22. 2009-01-29
    historical
23. 2009-01-29
    historical
24. 2008-12-10
    listed $149,000
25. 2008-12-10
    historical
26. 2008-12-01
    listed $149,000
27. 2008-12-01
    historical
28. 2008-09-25
    listed $154,900
29. 2008-09-25
    historical
30. 2008-02-11
    listed $149,000
31. 2008-02-11
    listed $159,900
32. 2005-09-14
    soldstatus $167,000
33. 2005-08-22
    soldstatus $167,000
34. 2005-08-22
    soldstatus $167,000
35. 2005-08-09
    historical
36. 2005-06-08
    listed $179,900
37. 2005-06-08
    listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,902 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,836 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$935/yr (+$78/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,354
• − Property taxes: −$2,902
• − Insurance: −$1,549
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,287
• − Management: −$2,287
• − Depreciation: −$9,012
• Taxable loss: −$6,799
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sterling Heights

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #4545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sterling Heights, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 133,573
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 34,015
• Household income: $88,065
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1055.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Arab 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Arabic 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.18%
• Current HPI: 184.9033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+72.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $309,800 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-14 Listed $309,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $309,800 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-23 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-06-21 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-03-17 Listed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-01-29 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2009-01-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-12-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-12-10 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2008-12-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-12-01 Listed $149,000 REALCOMP
• 2008-09-25 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2008-09-25 Listed $154,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-02-11 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2008-02-11 Listed $149,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-22 Sold (MLS) $167,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-08-22 Sold (MLS) $167,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-06-08 Listed $179,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-06-08 Listed $179,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,902 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.