15 Valley Brook Rd · East Rochester, NY 14526

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1956 0.26 ac lot $219/sqft · 21% below area Est $316k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meticulously maintained 4 bedroom, 2 full bath ranch on over 1/4 acre!! Highly sought after Penfield schools! Spacious living room/dining room combination with gleaming hardwoods, crown molding and gas fireplace - wonderful entertaining space! Large kitchen, appliances included! Den/Study area! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath on main floor! Basement is partially finished with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath - great in-law potential! Exterior walk-out! Laundry in basement! Central Vac System! Lovely back yard with patio!! Call today to schedule a showing! This one will not last!!

Key facts

• Shaker cabinetry
• Full basement
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• SHAKER CABINETRY
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing condition
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Open porch; Blacktop driveway; Irregular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 89 x 115

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Other interior: Full, partially finished basement; 1 fireplace
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-354 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#155 in NY, #2,400 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $169k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,322 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.07%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,108
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -20.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Valley View Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,156 (+1%)	1mo	$217,000	$188	81
1967 Penfield Rd	0.14mi	3/1.5	1,212 (+6%)	2mo	$282,000	$233	79
21 Valley Brook Rd	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,204 (+5%)	19mo	$261,500	$217	72
32 Valley Brook Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,298 (+14%)	5mo	$271,000	$209	68
2171 Baird Rd	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,209 (+6%)	19mo	$260,500	$215	61
191 Pleasant Way	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-4%)	18mo	$335,000	$307	51
65 Pleasant Way	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+1%)	18mo	$245,000	$213	48
851 Harmon Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,194 (+5%)	13mo	$323,000	$271	47
5 Valley View Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+14%)	21mo	$216,500	$167	39
12 Live Oak Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	991 (-13%)	17mo	$235,577	$238	37
26 Jacaranda Ct	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,277 (+12%)	18mo	$200,000	$157	30
39 Golf Stream Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,290 (+13%)	16mo	$267,500	$207	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-62,984
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-83,627
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14526

• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,463/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,261

Max offer price $187,344

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Brebeuf Dr Penfield, NY	2.0	1.0	763	$1,365	$1.79	3d	6	0.79mi
405 Garfield Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1228	$2,000	$1.63	2d	1	1.10mi
218 1/2 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.31mi
214 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	1.32mi
330 E Chestnut St East Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	10d	1	1.38mi
351 Penbrooke Dr Penfield, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	825	$2,282	$2.77	2d	19	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $249,900 Active 962-char remark
2. 2017-10-30
   soldstatus $169,000 Closed Sale or Rented 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 4 bedroom, 2 full bath ranch on over 1/4 acre!! Highly sought after Penfield schools! Spacious living room/dining room combination with gleaming hardwoods, crown molding and gas fireplace - wonderful entertaining space! Large kitchen, appliances included! Den/Study area! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath on main floor! Basement is partially finished with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath - great in-law potential! Exterior walk-out! Laundry in basement! Central Vac System! Lovely back yard with patio!! Call today to schedule a showing! This one will not last!!

3. 2017-10-25
   soldstatus $160,000
4. 2017-10-20
   status Pending Sale 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 4 bedroom, 2 full bath ranch on over 1/4 acre!! Highly sought after Penfield schools! Spacious living room/dining room combination with gleaming hardwoods, crown molding and gas fireplace - wonderful entertaining space! Large kitchen, appliances included! Den/Study area! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath on main floor! Basement is partially finished with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath - great in-law potential! Exterior walk-out! Laundry in basement! Central Vac System! Lovely back yard with patio!! Call today to schedule a showing! This one will not last!!

5. 2017-09-27
   status Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 4 bedroom, 2 full bath ranch on over 1/4 acre!! Highly sought after Penfield schools! Spacious living room/dining room combination with gleaming hardwoods, crown molding and gas fireplace - wonderful entertaining space! Large kitchen, appliances included! Den/Study area! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath on main floor! Basement is partially finished with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath - great in-law potential! Exterior walk-out! Laundry in basement! Central Vac System! Lovely back yard with patio!! Call today to schedule a showing! This one will not last!!

6. 2017-08-24
   status Pending Sale 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 4 bedroom, 2 full bath ranch on over 1/4 acre!! Highly sought after Penfield schools! Spacious living room/dining room combination with gleaming hardwoods, crown molding and gas fireplace - wonderful entertaining space! Large kitchen, appliances included! Den/Study area! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath on main floor! Basement is partially finished with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath - great in-law potential! Exterior walk-out! Laundry in basement! Central Vac System! Lovely back yard with patio!! Call today to schedule a showing! This one will not last!!

7. 2017-08-18
   listed $159,900 Active 575-char remark

   Show marketing remark (575 chars)

   Meticulously maintained 4 bedroom, 2 full bath ranch on over 1/4 acre!! Highly sought after Penfield schools! Spacious living room/dining room combination with gleaming hardwoods, crown molding and gas fireplace - wonderful entertaining space! Large kitchen, appliances included! Den/Study area! 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath on main floor! Basement is partially finished with 1 bedroom and 1 full bath - great in-law potential! Exterior walk-out! Laundry in basement! Central Vac System! Lovely back yard with patio!! Call today to schedule a showing! This one will not last!!

8. 2013-07-31
   soldstatus $138,000

   Show marketing remark (499 chars)

   Sharp looking, professionally landscaped ranch, with finished basement walk out, offering two full baths. Beautiful hardwoods through out, large bow bay window overlooking rear grounds. Open floor plan w/ living/dining combo, enhanced by a handsome gas fireplace with marble hearth. Many updates per attachment include roof 2011, furnace & AC 1999, windows & siding 1990-1991. Appliances can be included. This house has a downstairs bedroom & family room with in-law possibilities.

9. 2013-07-29
   soldstatus $138,000
10. 2013-06-05
    listed $134,900

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Sharp looking, professionally landscaped ranch, with finished basement walk out, offering two full baths. Beautiful hardwoods through out, large bow bay window overlooking rear grounds. Open floor plan w/ living/dining combo, enhanced by a handsome gas fireplace with marble hearth. Many updates per attachment include roof 2011, furnace & AC 1999, windows & siding 1990-1991. Appliances can be included. This house has a downstairs bedroom & family room with in-law possibilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,463 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,463 · $372/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,463
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,741
• − Management: −$1,741
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$8,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Rochester

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #2400

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 7,529
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,629
• Household income: $118,777
• Rent vs Own: 16.0% rent · 84.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 234.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.19%
• Current HPI: 271.8476
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+85.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $249,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-10-30 Sold (MLS) $169,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-20 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-09-27 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2017-08-24 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2017-08-18 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-07-31 Sold (MLS) $138,000 UNYREIS
• 2013-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-05 Listed $134,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,463 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.