32816 Rustic Rise Rd · Pasadena Hills, FL 33576

$267,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · Land · 118 Days on market

Built 2026 5,225 sqft lot $133/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 32816 RUSTIC RISE ROAD SAN ANTONIO FL 33576 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1565, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Dog parks
• Golf cart paths
• Tot lots

Tags

• WALKING TRAILS
• GOLF CART PATHS
• TOT LOTS
• DOG PARKS
• SMART HOME SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty available
• Financial info: Other annual assessment $1,920; Total monthly fees $133; total annual fees $1,596; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Breeze Home); Monthly HOA $91 (includes grounds maintenance); Association approval required; Community amenities: park, playground, pool, recreation facilities; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities; Other utilities available
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Under construction (projected completion August 30, 2026); Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Builder: D.R. Horton (model: Siesta); Permit number 2025-006146; Builder license CBC039052; Building area about 2,085 total; living area about 1,564 (builder)
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Pool (other)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Double pane windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Irrigation equipment

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 364 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $235,521 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.32% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-33,987
• Equity at exit: $48,156

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,523
• Equity at exit: $37,500

Cash invested: $75,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33576

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,199

Max offer price $267,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $199	+0% $123	+5% $47	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $30	+0% $123	+5% $216	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $191	base $123	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $-17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,998
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32650 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,600	$1.41	12d	1	0.10mi
32783 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,200	$1.19	25d	1	0.18mi
32909 Osprey Peak Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,350	$1.51	25d	1	0.27mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	3d	1	0.28mi
10959 Cotton Vale Pl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,100	$1.14	21d	1	0.28mi
10888 Quail Grove Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,400	$1.42	25d	1	0.29mi
11545 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,250	$1.55	25d	1	0.54mi
11210 Linden Depot Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	5d	1	0.59mi
11672 Radiant Shore Loop San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	15d	1	0.66mi
32094 Hawthorne Cottage Pl San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,795	$1.44	25d	1	0.69mi
32118 Pond Apple Bnd San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1732	$2,400	$1.39	25d	1	0.75mi
32112 Pond Apple Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	25d	1	0.75mi
32067 Eastern Redbud Br San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1639	$2,250	$1.37	25d	1	0.76mi
10708 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	18d	1	0.80mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	25d	1	0.82mi
10817 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,250	$1.33	2d	1	0.82mi
10715 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,050	$1.22	15d	1	0.83mi
10647 Ironwood Tree Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,400	$1.40	25d	1	0.85mi
32201 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,050	$1.25	25d	1	0.95mi
32127 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.97mi
10375 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	18d	1	0.97mi
32077 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1541	$2,100	$1.36	25d	1	0.97mi
10334 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	3.0	1634	$2,000	$1.22	25d	1	0.99mi
32146 Powderpuff Mimosa Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,050	$1.14	20d	1	1.00mi
10321 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,000	$1.20	22d	1	1.01mi
10443 Lavender Aster Trl San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$1,950	$1.17	25d	1	1.03mi
10250 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1676	$1,979	$1.18	25d	1	1.08mi
31825 Kestrel Calling Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,300	$1.44	25d	1	1.08mi
10583 Tupper Cay Dr San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$2,950	$1.67	4d	1	1.10mi
11608 Ascend Mirada Blvd San Antonio, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$2,530	$2.15	0d	21	1.12mi
10171 Trumpet Honeysuckle Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	25d	1	1.14mi
10019 Curley Rd San Antonio, FL	4.0	2.0	1304	$1,900	$1.46	25d	1	1.19mi
10114 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,895	$1.16	21d	1	1.19mi
10110 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,995	$1.32	25d	1	1.20mi
10121 Honey Hammock Way San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	25d	1	1.20mi
32009 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	2.0	2.5	1513	$1,900	$1.26	18d	1	1.25mi
32067 Spiceberry St San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$1,900	$1.16	0d	1	1.25mi
32010 Spiceberry St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,100	$1.29	13d	1	1.27mi
11126 Tidepool Ct Unit Na San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	20d	1	1.28mi
11126 Tidepool Ct San Antonio, FL	3.0	2.5	1788	$3,200	$1.79	22d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $267,990 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $267,990 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $267,990 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $287,990 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $287,990 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $287,990 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $287,990 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $294,990 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $294,990 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    price $299,990 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The property is located at 32816 RUSTIC RISE ROAD SAN ANTONIO FL 33576 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1565, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

13. 2026-05-13
    price $299,990
14. 2026-05-07
    price $304,990

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The property is located at 32816 RUSTIC RISE ROAD SAN ANTONIO FL 33576 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1565, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

15. 2026-05-07
    price $304,990 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The property is located at 32816 RUSTIC RISE ROAD SAN ANTONIO FL 33576 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1565, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

16. 2026-04-22
    price $309,990

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The property is located at 32816 RUSTIC RISE ROAD SAN ANTONIO FL 33576 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1565, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

17. 2026-04-22
    price $309,990 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The property is located at 32816 RUSTIC RISE ROAD SAN ANTONIO FL 33576 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1565, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $314,990 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    The property is located at 32816 RUSTIC RISE ROAD SAN ANTONIO FL 33576 priced at 299990, the square foot and stories are 1565, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 3 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

19. 2026-02-17
    listed $314,990 Active
20. 2026-01-16
    soldstatus $815,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,050 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,224 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,175/yr (+$98/mo · 111.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$3,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$733
• After-tax cash flow: $2,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,273
• Household income: $76,388
• Rent vs Own: 4.5% rent · 95.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 31.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Current HPI: 281.7138
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-63.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $299,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $304,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $309,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Listed $314,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Listed $314,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $815,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,050 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.