34495 Agave Dr #23104 · French Valley, CA 92596

$439,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,497 sqft · Condo public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2024 $327/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home! Step into this stunning newly built 2024 townhome, perfectly combining modern style, convenience, and sustainability. Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 elegant bathrooms, this immaculate, turn-key residence is ready for you to move right in. This townhome is centrally located in complex near pool/club house & mailboxes and no front facing neighbors. This home has whole house water filtration system/softener, reverse osmosis water system in kitchen, plantation shutters on all windows, garage storage racks, game room/office with electrical, AC, and separate entrance, ceiling fans, barn door in master, hard wire (Ethernet ready) from internet panel to gues

Key facts

• Plantation shutters
• Barn door
• Garage storage racks

Tags

• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• GARAGE STORAGE RACKS
• GAME ROOM
• BARN DOOR
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• 240 V EV CHARGER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-623 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $329k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in French Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $328,989 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $189,148
• Equity at exit: $395,486

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $569,861
• Equity at exit: $852,880

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,620 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$671 /mo · $8,049/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$327
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$760
• Net cashflow: $-623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,409

Max offer price $328,989

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-374	-5% $-498	+0% $-623	+5% $-747	+10% $-871
Rent	-10% $-909	-5% $-766	+0% $-623	+5% $-480	+10% $-337
Rate	-1.0pp $-402	-0.5pp $-511	base $-623	+0.5pp $-737	+1.0pp $-852

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	19d	1	0.02mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	26d	1	0.02mi
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	12d	1	0.02mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	45d	1	0.79mi
34543 Ciruela AVE French Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1497	$3,400	$2.27	0d	1	0.94mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	18d	1	0.99mi
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	23d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $327 · $3,924/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricinternetpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2025-12-19
   soldstatus $439,000
2. 2025-12-15
   historical $2,895
3. 2025-10-29
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-20
   status Active
5. 2025-10-06
   status Pending
6. 2025-09-29
   listed $439,000 Active
7. 2025-09-13
   price $2,895
8. 2025-09-12
   historical
9. 2025-09-09
   listed $2,995
10. 2025-07-16
    status Active
11. 2025-06-26
    status Pending
12. 2025-06-17
    status Pending
13. 2025-05-24
    price $449,000
14. 2025-05-16
    price $459,000
15. 2025-05-15
    price $460,000
16. 2025-04-28
    listed $475,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,049 · $671/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,049 · $671/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$8,049
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,476
• − Management: −$3,476
• − HOA: −$3,924
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$15,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,609
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $439,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-15 Rental Removed $2,895 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-10-29 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-10-06 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $439,000 SDMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $2,895 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed for Rent $2,995 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-07-16 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-06-26 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-06-17 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $449,000 SDMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $459,000 SDMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $460,000 SDMLS
• 2025-04-28 Listed $475,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+90.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,049 · +90.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.