3800 W Wilson #54 · Banning, CA 92220

$260,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1981 4,356 sqft lot Est $240k · 8% over $145/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming home in a beautiful 55+ community! The backyard features fruit trees and a permitted covered patio, perfect for relaxing and enjoying the peaceful surroundings. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom with a walk-in closet and oversized tub. The home is equipped with a water softener and an upgraded central air system. Community amenities include a pool, spa, clubhouse, and gym. Conveniently located near shopping centers with easy freeway access. Solar panels are installed but may not be active. Agents and buyers are encouraged to verify all the information.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Water softener
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED TUB
• WATER SOFTENER
• UPGRADED CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessor-sourced lot and living area information; Parcel number 537220051; No ADU
• HOA & community: Part of Banning Estates association; Monthly association fee of $145; Senior community; Association amenities: pool, spa, clubhouse, gym/exercise room, tennis, pickleball, barbecue, picnic area, multipurpose recreational room; pets permitted; call for rules

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry level: 1; Has a view
• Construction: Raised foundation; Certified 433a
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Landscaped yard with garden and backyard; Community pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main level; 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Side entry door; Association and community spa
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($490/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Banning — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,192 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Banning Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #1,258 of 1,400 in CA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $260k implies a 688% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,102 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3800 W Wilson St #14	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$240,000	$167	99
3800 W Wilson #157	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$261,000	$181	92
3800 W Wilson St #394	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$117,250	$81	86
3800 W Wilson St #256	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$252,500	$188	82
3800 W Wilson St #295	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	8mo	$250,000	$163	82
3800 W Wilson #208	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	6mo	$130,000	$97	79
3800 W Wilson St #17	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$295,000	$236	77
3800 W Wilson St #2	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	8mo	$265,000	$212	71
3800 Wilson St #369	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,634 (+14%)	2mo	$130,000	$80	71
4133 W WILSON #19	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$117,000	$81	71
3800 W Wilson St #104	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (-15%)	1mo	$129,999	$106	70
3800 W Wilson #59	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	1mo	$222,000	$178	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-38,290
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-24,833
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92220

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$145
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,129

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $114	+0% $41	+5% $-33	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-45	+0% $41	+5% $127	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $107	base $41	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1949 W Williams St Banning, CA	3.0	2.0	1108	$2,350	$2.12	25d	1	1.00mi
228 Janan Ct Banning, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	0d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $145 · $1,740/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 599-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $260,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,191/yr (+$99/mo · 151.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − HOA: −$1,740
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$952
• After-tax cash flow: $1,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Banning Unified
• NCES district ID: 0603840
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,303
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #13850
• State rank: #1258 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Banning

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1192
• US rank: #26047

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Banning, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,755
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,755
• Household income: $62,599
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1146.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 21% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -343.32%
• Current HPI: 342.4268
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+687.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $260,000 CRMLS
• 2022-07-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-06-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-05-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-05-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-05-18 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 1991-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.